While the Super Bowl winner is still in the locker room celebrating their victory, the people I’m most interested in are diligently at work for the next season. In the coming weeks after a new champion is crowned, the bookmakers will release Super Bowl odds for the next season, and soon thereafter, odds on division winners and, not long after that, season win totals.
Our work for an upcoming season begins in February, I take stock in what those numbers reveal. While the individual teams will promote draft picks and team development as reasons to think their squad is poised to vie for the next Super Bowl championship, the books have nothing to promote. They are not selling season tickets or looking to inspire a fan base. Their numbers are fact based.
It is here we can get our first edge on an upcoming season. I love surprise numbers, teams that have win totals screwed down over public opinion or those that have extra wins seemingly added to their season projections. We can see where the books expect teams to do better than expected and those squads apparently overrated by the public.
This year, one of the teams that the book numbers indicated was well ahead of public opinion was the Atlanta Falcons. Their win total for games was 8½, more than they had won last year and well above their preseason numbers of recent seasons. Super Bowl odds were still long, but 55 to 1 put them with better odds than they carried into recent past campaigns.
So, take the Falcons to be a surprisingly good team this year?
Atlanta opened the season with a pair of wins, beating the Carolina Panthers by two touchdowns and edging the Green Bay Packers by one point. They were favored in both those games, covered the 3½ point line against Carolina and lost to the number while giving three points in their game with Green Bay.
The past two weeks, Atlanta’s offense has gone south. They managed only six points in a two touchdown loss to the Detroit Lions and seven points last week in a setback across the pond against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The first month results have the Falcons coming into play this week with two wins and two losses and on a three game point spread losing streak.
Tomorrow, they host the Houston Texans. Houston has reversed the Falcons early season results while losing their first two games and winning their two most recent. Losses to Baltimore and Indianapolis were followed by upset victories over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers.
First-year head coach DeMeco Ryans has got his young Texans team rising from recent years of inept play to suddenly looking like a contender in their AFC South Division.
With the Texans on back-to-back impressive wins, and the Falcons struggling, one might think the Texans would be favored on Sunday. In fact, the books opened this game with Atlanta a 3½ point favorite.
What do you think was the purpose of that line?
With recent results, wouldn’t you think that 3½ points tacked on to a team that just downed the Ravens and Steelers against a team that hasn’t scored double-digits in two weeks would draw a lot of underdog action?
If you thought that, you’d be right.
Heavy action on the visiting Texans has driven the line down from the opening number two points; the Falcons are currently favored by 1½.
Lets see, the books liked the Falcons based on off-season numbers and liked them again this week with the seemingly bloated line. And the public? Well, they took the bait on the spread.
I suggest you don’t.
Qoxhi Picks: Atlanta Falcons (-1½) over Houston Texans