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Cold Morning

by Dennis Ranahan

Have you ever seen an accident with a brand new car smashed up with dealer advertising still present where the license plates will go once they arrive?

That scene is parallel to what the New York Jets experienced in first week National Football League action when their newly acquired quarterback was lost for the season with an injury. All the preseason hype on how high the Jets would rise this year with an experienced championship quarterback at the controls of their offense was erased by Aaron Rodgers suffering an Achilles tear.

About an hour later, during the halftime show on ESPN, Peyton Manning addressed the injury with the prediction that the Jets would be in for a rough second half against the highly regarded Buffalo Bills. The Bills had taken a 10 point lead to the halftime locker room, and Manning expected that gap to be expanded in the second half.

Athletes often see the game through matchups more than motivation. Manning assumed that the loss of their starting quarterback could only hurt the Jets and help the Bills. In my world, where motivation is even more important than rushing or passing stats, the opposite is true. I only saw the advantage the Jets got in the locker room being down, without their new superstar quarterback, and facing 30 more minutes against a Bills team now only needing to halt an offense being directed by the questionable skills of Zach Wilson.

The Bills were confident in their locker room of their opener in New Jersey, the Jets desperate to find some way to compete with a team that already had a double-digit lead. On this night, it was motivation that ruled the second half, and while the Bills went through the motions thinking victory would be theirs, the Jets scraped together every fiber in their bodies to try and fend off an overwhelming set of circumstances from the physical realm pitched against them.

With motivation at their backs, the Jets talented defense limited the Bills to 25 rushing yards in the second half and outscored them 13-3 to force overtime. The extra period ended in the Jets favor when Xavier Gipson returned the Bills punt, after Buffalo went three-and-out, 65-yards for the winning touchdown.

Off that result, an inspired Bills performance countered their opener and led to a 38-10 triumph over the visiting Las Vegas Raiders. On the same day, the Jets came up flat in a loss to the Dallas Cowboys, 30-10.

Now what?

The Jets host the New England Patriots tomorrow, not off the glow of a comeback win over the team that has won the AFC East Division title the past three seasons, but following a humbling setback in Dallas. They are still apparently in the market for a veteran quarterback to replace the injured Rodgers, but currently are making due with an athlete they have about as much confidence in as you would of trying to start an old car on a cold morning with a weak battery.

Now the team that won the AFC East title in 17 of 19 seasons beginning in 2001, come calling and the line has them favored over the Jets at MetLife Stadium. Bill Belichick is leading a New England Patriots squad that shows little resemblance to those dominant teams he paraded around the league for two decades. The Patriots are still looking for their first win this year, as Belichick has suffered his first season of opening with back-to-back losses since 2001. He hasn’t lost three games to start a campaign since his first year as head coach of New England in 2000.

The books opened this game with the visitor favored by two points, and the public doesn’t expect New England to get beat three weeks in a row. Thing is, while the Patriots of the past may not have been a likely candidate to lose three straight games, the players wearing New England uniforms today have only a single prerequisite for that fate … losing their first two contests of the season.

The Jets high hopes this season were not exclusively pinned to Rodgers, they also field a talented stop unit and a lot of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. And the public, well they still think this is the Patriots of old, they are not, they are a mere shadow of the quality squads Belichick led into battle during all his days of glory.

On Sunday, the winless team is favored on the road, and the home team is motivated to play the Patriots, not an oh and two team.

Qoxhi Picks: New York Jets (+3) over New England Patriots

Who is the Starter

by Dennis Ranahan

The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears close out this marathon National Football League weekend tonight at US Bank Stadium. In the past five days, the NFL has staged games on four of them beginning with a triple-header on Thanksgiving. Tonight, the Vikings look to inch closer to the NFC North Division leading Detroit Lions, who were upset by the Green Bay Packers on Thursday.

The Chicago Bears?

Well they look to get done what they are seemingly always looking to do, improve their last place record. The Bears have three wins in 11 decisions, and there is something very interesting in that stat.

Their first round drafted quarterback, Justin Fields, has won one game as Chicago’s starter in his last 17 starts. While Fields was recovering from a thumb injury on his throwing hand, the Bears inserted undrafted rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent and in his four starts he won two games.

For those of you math majors, that means the undrafted rookie won 50% of his starts and the Bears first round draft choice just below 6%. A most unexpected stat given Fields' high profile and college years spent at Georgia and Ohio State while Bagent spent his college years at Shepherd University.

Where?

You know, that powerhouse Division II Shepherd Rams group.

Oh.

So, who do you start?

Of course you go with Fields, who we must assume, like the Bears, has a bigger upside than Bagent.

He better have if they are to compare their salaries even though the results over recent games can’t bear this out.

Why has Fields suffered so much over the past two seasons and his replacement actually tallied better results? That is a question perhpas left better for a therapist than a handicapper.

But, as a handicapper, I can tell you this, the Bears thought they were going to lose all of Bagent’s starts and that put them in a better position motivationally than having trust that Field’s can win. It was also, no doubt, a case of the Chicago opponents not knowing what they were getting with Bagent behind center and well prepared to guard against Field’s explosive running ability.

Tonight, the Vikings are out to prove that they can win with a backup quarterback too. In fact, Minnesota has proven that since their starter, Kirk Cousins, went down with a season ending ACL tear four weeks ago. With no quarterback on their roster that the Vikings had confidence in, they made a mid-week trade after Cousins was injured to acquire career back-up Joshua Dobbs from the Arizona Cardinals.

Cousins had the Vikings on a winning streak before his injury, scoring three straight wins that began with a victory over the Chicago Bears in mid-October. Motivated to compensate for the loss of Cousins, the Vikings team came together and won two more games with Dobbs running the show before a narrow loss last Sunday night to the Broncos in Denver.

It was a narrow loss to the Broncos, but it was also snapping the edge the Vikings owned as an underdog with an undervalued quarterback. Tonight, they take the field against a division rival as a favorite with a backup quarterback and the Bears are at maximum strength with Fields now fully recovered from his thumb injury.

What that leaves us with is Chicago the more motivated team with the more competent quarterback getting points on the spread.

They won’t need them.

Qoxhi Picks: Chicago Bears (+3) over Minnesota Vikings

Sideline Mismatch

by Dennis Ranahan

The Baltimore Ravens visit the Los Angeles Chargers tonight in a game that matches one of the best head coaches in the game, John Harbaugh, against the worst, Brandon Staley. While both teams have excellent rosters, Harbaugh has the Ravens atop the AFC North Division and in position to claim home field advantage in the conference playoffs.

Staley has the Chargers buried in last place in the AFC West with only four wins in ten decisions.

Makes you wonder why the Chargers have stuck so long with Staley after consecutive seasons of making more mistakes from his position on the field than just about anyone in the league.

I’ll tell you why, because the Chargers organization gave Staley such a big contract they are hoping to get some return for their investment. Bad idea, given they also have one of the highest paid players behind center and Justin Herbert is simply not getting the support he needs to realize his full potential.

So, take the Ravens tonight and laugh all the way to the bank?

There is a problem with that assumption. The Chargers are more in need of this game and at home getting points is a choice spot for them to overcome their coaching woes and give the Ravens a surprise competitive game.

That fact is enough to dissuade me from laying the points on the road with a Ravens squad comfortably ahead in their division race.

But I would bend that way before I would back the Chargers with this mismatch on the sidelines.

Now, if the Chargers were able to pull together tonight and pick up an unexpected victory, then the AFC West would have all four teams in their grouping on the prowl to earn a playoff berth.

Stranger things have happened. Consider this, a couple years ago the Raiders fired their head coach and their special teams coordinator, Rich Bisaccia, took over and led the Raiders to a postseason berth. This year, the Raiders fired Josh McDaniels and Las Vegas has played remarkably better since the shift.

Does this give you any ideas Chargers?

I would love to see Herbert excel at a level in an organization that takes full advantage of his skillset, but that’s not going to happen under his current coach.

Stats Aside

by Dennis Ranahan

The Cincinnati Bengals season started bad, with Joe Burrow nursing a sore calf, and it has just gotten a lot worse, with Burrow lost for the season with a wrist injury.

What are the Bengals without Burrow?

Before he arrived, four years ago, the Bengals could be counted on to finish in last place in the AFC North Division, unless, and sometimes this was true, the Cleveland Browns had an even worse season. Now the Bengals and Browns are in similar positions again, but this time it is not for being two of the worst teams in the league but the two teams that have spent more money on quarterbacks without expecting any returns for the rest of the 2023 season.

Burrow is the highest paid player in the league, and he will collect the rest of his 55 million dollar salary this season watching from the sidelines. The Browns sidelined signal caller, Deshaun Watson, has a guaranteed contract worth about a quarter of a billion dollars over five years. He too will collect nearly 55 million this year without taking another snap for the Browns in 2023.

With the Bengals and Browns missing their field generals, does that leave the division up for grabs between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens?

The Browns come into play this week a game ahead of the Steelers and a half game off the pace set by the eight and three Ravens. Cleveland’s defense is good enough to keep them in the hunt for at least a Wild Card berth if not the AFC North Division title. But, what could have been a special year for Kevin Stefanski’s squad has been greatly diminished with the loss of two of their offensive stars. In addition to Watson sidelined, earlier this year the Browns lost one of the best runningbacks in the league, Nick Chubb, to a season ending injury.

Someday, the Browns are going to get a break, but this year looks like another one in which they remain one the few teams left in the league to never have cracked a Super Bowl appearance.

The Bengals, who have won this division the past couple years and were AFC Conference Champions in 2021 and participants in the AFC Championship Game last season, appear more troubled by the loss of Burrow. With him just hobbled with the calf injury early in the season, he didn’t play at all in the preseason and then struggled physically during the first part of the season, the Bengals lost three of their first four games.

After wins against the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks entering their bye week, Cincinnati came out of their week off with Burrow appearing at full strength and his team responded with wins over the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills. Two weeks ago, they absorbed a surprise home loss to the surging Houston Texans and then were poised to take on the Ravens in Baltimore needing a win to close the gap in their division.

On his last play of the season, Burrow completed a touchdown pass to put the Bengals ahead, but after throwing that touchdown he grimaced in pain while holding his right wrist. The injury, which was suffered a week earlier and not reported on the injury report, was aggravated by his final throw and the Bengals were helpless to fend off the Ravens charge and ultimate win a week ago Thursday. Baltimore’s victory kept them perched on top of the division and for all practical purposes eliminated the Bengals for the 2023 season.

On Sunday, the Bengals meet the Steelers after having ten days to prepare for this meeting. With a loss, Cincinnati gives further ground in their division race, and with a win the Steelers will stay in striking distance of the Ravens.

The Steelers are a most interesting group. They are the first team in NFL history to have a winning record after ten games, 6-4, while being outgained in every one of their contests.

How are they doing it?

Consider it a combination of luck and design. Led by a coach who has never suffered a losing season, a record 16 consecutive winning campaigns to begin his pro coaching career, Mike Tomlin is often the reason for a win and seemingly never makes a decision that is the cause for a loss.

But, this is a tough one for the Steelers. Last week, in a game against the Browns without Watson, Kenny Pickett simply couldn’t move Pittsburgh’s offense against the Browns stop unit and lost the game, 13-10. While the Steelers have a winning record and are in the hunt for a division title, Pickett has been a major disappointment in his sophomore season.

In his rookie year, Tomlin turned the reins over to his first-year quarterback after it was determined that Mitch Trubisky was what the Chicago Bears discovered after they made him their first round draft pick in 2017 … incapable of moving an NFL team. Pickett was the Steelers first quarterback chosen in the first round since Ben Roethlisberger, and it appeared it was going to work out nearly as well.

Then, 2023, and Pickett appears to have digressed from his rookie season success. Which leaves us with this, a Bengals team unlikely to win without Burrow and a Steelers team consistently winning no matter what the stats say.

I’ll take the winner.

Qoxhi Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) over Cincinnati Bengals

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