Inquiring minds want to know.
Do I really think the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to win Super Bowl LVIII?
Yes.
Has a team with that long of odds ever won a Super Bowl? The Steelers are currently posted at various sites from 40 to 55 to one?
Well, beginning in 1970, when the American and National football leagues merged into the current alignment with the American and National football conferences of the National Football League there have been a few teams with long odds that won it all. In that group are the New York Giants in 2008, Baltimore Ravens in 2000 and St. Louis Rams in 1999. It is more common for a long odds team to get to the game and then fall one win short of a Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Most recently, the 2019 San Francisco 49ers were 45 to one with opening numbers and my good friend and broadcast partner, Tom Tolbert, had them. That was the year the 49ers took a 10 point lead into the fourth quarter before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV. A few years earlier, the Arizona Cardinals had even longer odds before they met the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII.
The Cardinals also had a fourth quarter lead, but Pittsburgh emerged with the Super Bowl victory, 27-23.
Now, both the Cardinals in 2008 and the 49ers four years ago did not get to the Super Bowl while having a team with as much chance as the Cardinals this year. Before Tom wagered on the 49ers he gave me his reasons, and they were sound logic and almost resulted in a huge payday.
This year, in a season where no team seems to have the corner on winning the Super Bowl, there are a number of teams that appear capable of bouncing up based on talent, coaching and experience.
It would not shock me if the Cleveland Browns had a magical season and earned their first Super Bowl birth. Same goes for the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers, two teams with long odds but personnel that could develop into a big time winner.
So, if you’re asking me who I think is going to win the Super Bowl next February at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, I’d say the teams with the best chances are the Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs or San Francisco 49ers.
But, if the question is where the most value is on a Super Bowl wager, my money is on the Steelers.
That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it.