NFL 2024 Season - Week 5
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Headline Play

Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
SEASON:
     
 
Game Day
by Dennis Ranahan

It is Sunday, between the hours of 8:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. Pacific Time.

How do I know that?

Because this feature, the gameday headline play, only appears on this site during that time. For the 26 weeks during a National Football League season this article will offer some intriguing insights into the day’s upcoming action.

It will include weather and injury situations that might affect play and wagering patterns that do often dictate point spread results. We’ll let you know where the money is and what are the three favorite plays made on that week’s game by the public. We are most times against the public action?

Why?

Does that mean we think the public are not smart?

No.

Just the opposite. In fact, the public bettors are a heat seeking missile for finding the teams that appear to have the most dramatic edges over their opponents. Only thing is, finding those teams that seem in the best position to win is also fertile ground for motivational letdowns.

The players on the teams are in the same conversation that assumes they are in for a challenging or easy opponent. The best motivator in sports is a healthy fear of your opponent, whereas when a game appears clearly in one team’s favor is the most likely spot for a less spirited week of preparation and a likely dull performance on Sunday.

That is why a team like the Indianapolis Colts, a squad that had more problems last year than a naked beekeeper, can come up with a surprise regular season win over the eventual Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. And yes, the Colts plus the points over the Chiefs in Week Three, was the third of our season opening six straight top pick of the week winners to open the 2022 season. By season end, the Colts had fired their coach and finished the year with only four wins, one of them over the Chiefs in third week action, 20-17.

We spend the entire year focussed on the NFL and that work leads to early season success. In fact, over the past four seasons our weekly top picks are 15-0-1 over the first four weeks of an NFL campaign.

The 26 weeks of off-season work is one reason we can trust our judgment, and recommend you do too, when the National Football League season is in play.