The Baltimore Ravens carry a 23 game preseason winning streak into their contest on Saturday against the defending National Football Conference Champion Philadelphia Eagles.
Twenty-three straight preseason victories for John Harbaugh’s squad. They haven’t lost a preseason game since 2015 and have an incredible 20-2-1 point spread record in those 23 straight-up victories. So, bet the Ravens in the preseason and laugh all the way to the bank?
Not necessarily.
Whenever a matchup has a record well known by the betting public that offers a longstanding advantage for one side, who do you think is on the other side?
The books.
And who are the guys with the information and talent that can give the general public their choice of a side in every game and year-in-and-year-out separate them from the money?
The books.
You think the books like to lose?
They don’t.
So, what do they do to counter a trend like this?
They reel in wagers on the Ravens that offer a bad number on the line. A point spread perfectly suited to pickpocket gamblers even if the Ravens extend their straight-up winning streak.
Consider this, for a number of years home team underdogs in the NFL were gold with winning percentages season-after-season with winner percentages that hovered around 60%. Those NFL underdogs were only winning 32% of their games, but collecting the money with the benefit of the line nearly twice their straight-up record.
Since 2000, home team underdogs in the NFL have seen an increase in their straight up wins, up to 35%, so you might imagine that their winning percentage would also increase against the line. But no, in fact for the past 14 season wagering on home team underdogs have generated as many point spread losses as wins, and without winning at least 52.38% of their wagers clients pay the books.
How can more underdogs win straight-up and beat the spread less times?
Because the books found the lines that shifted the advantage away from the home underdogs and collected their gains while the public was looking to cash today with yesterday’s winners.
So, what does that leave us with in this opening week of the preseason? I suggest the gravy train of profits based on the Ravens success is clearly now a wager against the books … and the books can manipulate numbers to shift the advantage. My method is much more aligned with winning with the books, capitalizing on their ability to shift long established winning wagers to point spread losers based on bad lines.
This week, the books opened the Ravens as a three point home favorite, a number that did not dissuade the betting public from piling on the home favorite. Within 24 hours of the number being posted in most spots, the line rose like the temperature in Arizona. It is now double the opening number, the Ravens are currently favored by six points.
So, we have a choice to get in the long line to back Baltimore, or side with people who know best how to turn public winners into point spread losers.
I’ll back the book.
Qoxhi Picks: Philadelphia Eagles (+6) over Baltimore Ravens