Art Rosenbaum worked at the San Francisco Chronicle for 60 years, 25 of those as sports editor. In 1981, he was ten years before his retirement and visiting me in my east bay office the first year I opened Qoxhi Picks.

A man that covered numerous Olympics and had been to every major sporting event was sitting in my Concord office. It was a friendship forged during my years with the Oakland Raiders. Rosenbaum had a wide range of interests, and one of them was the point spread side of National Football League games.

During our visit he told me of a handicapping service named “Volition.” They didn’t release a pick until the third week of the season, based on a theory that sides could be more accurately chosen after the teams revealed who they were in a couple weeks of regular season play.

I couldn’t have disagreed more.

The best time, I contended to Art, was early in a season when our collateral data was based on current strengths and the public was still backing last year’s results. I emphasized that enough to Art that he ended the subject with a smile, wave of his right hand, and the comment that he’d take my side on this matter.

Good call.

Four years ago, the Indianapolis Colts opened in San Diego against the Chargers as a six point underdog and our top pick of the week. The Colts lost the game, but pushed on the point spread, 30-24. That push is the worst result for a top pick in the first four weeks of the past four seasons. Fifteen consecutive point spread wins including ten underdogs that won straight up.

What I was counting on to gain an early season edge forty years ago is still what works today, but in 2023, we have so many more tools to access pertinent factors. I’m a realist, I’d bet against us never losing, but sure like our position on future success.