On Monday, I was at lunch when a friend asked whether the favorite or underdog most often won the Super Bowl?

It is a basic question, but it is not the important one.

What matters is not the straight-up winner, but the point spread decision.

Whether the favorite or underdog wins more often in the Super Bowl is of little significance in comparison with what is more likely going to generate the result of Super Bowl LVII. National Football League final scores are driven by the unique circumstances that are present in every game. Most often, the drivers that dictate results are pinned to motivational factors.

Talent as good as the Baltimore Colts over the New York Jets, or New England Patriots over the New York Giants in the Super Bowl III and XLII matchups illustrate the point. The Colts were considered a team on par with the Green Bay Packers, who had downed the American Football League challenger by big scores in the first two Super Bowls. The Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points in Super Bowl I, 35-10, and outscored the Oakland Raiders by nearly three touchdowns in Super Bowl II, 33-14.

In the 1968 season, the Jets had beaten their most hated rival, the Raiders, in the AFL Title game. It could be assumed that was the top of the mountain for Joe Namath and company, and they would play a role similar to the Washington Generals in a game with the Harlem Globetrotters in Super Bowl III. The point spread had Don Shula’s Colts favored by 19 points. The game was the third in a four game schedule that the National Football League would play against the American Football League before merging into the American and National football conferences for the 1970 season.

The Jets earned the first Super Bowl title for the American Football League by scoring one of the biggest upsets in professional football history, beating the Colts, 16-7. The following season, the Chiefs, in their second try for the soon-to-be-named Vince Lombardi Trophy, upset Head Coach Bud Grant and his Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV, 23-7.

The National Football League opened their 1970 season, the inaugural year of a unified league with two conferences, with both league’s winning two matchups against each other in the first four Super Bowls. It gave the American Football Conference credibility against the more established National Football League teams.

The merger included all ten American Football League franchises and the shifting of three National Football League teams to the new conference. They were the Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Colts.

The Colts won Super Bowl V over the Dallas Cowboys in a contest between two original National Football League teams. The Cowboys beat the Miami Dolphins the next year, and Miami got the AFC their first Super Bowl win while completing their perfect season with a victory over the Washington Redskins, 14-7, in Super Bowl VII.

The Dolphins completed their perfect season as a point spread underdog against the Washington Redskins. An edge not presented either the Colts against the Jets or the New York Giants against the undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. In that game, the Patriots were a two-touchdown favorite to complete the first undefeated season since the 1972 Dolphins, and were beaten, 17-14.

Motivational edges are most often found with the underdog in an NFL matchup.

So, did I know the answer to whether the favorite or underdog wins more often in the Super Bowl?

Yep.

The favorite has won 63% of the 56 Super Bowls played, with a record of 35-21.

Against the point spread, the underdog has a very slim edge, 28-27-1, a winning percentage of 51% and not enough to show a profit while factoring in the vig.

So, if either the favorite or underdog can win Super Bowl LVII, who is?

The Philadelphia Eagles.

Why?

They have hit every marker this season with highlights by my numbers beginning with their triumph over the Dallas Cowboys in Week Six. The Eagles came into that contest with a perfect 5-0 mark and met a Cowboys team that had won four straight games and trailed the NFC East Division leading Eagles by one game.

In this spot, a team needs to be very special to succeed, particularly against a bloated point spread.

The Eagles did both, downing Dallas, 26-17, to push their division lead to two games while covering the 6½ point spread. That result was clear evidence on my charts that the Eagles were something special.

The same week the Eagles beat the Cowboys, the Chiefs lost at home to the Buffalo Bills. Kansas City had narrowly escaped with a win the prior week while having to overcome an early 17 point deficit against the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football. After Kansas City pulled out a one-point win, 30-29 over Las Vegas, they had little left in their motivational tanks and were home underdogs to the Buffalo Bills. The Bills beat Kansas City at Arrowhead, 24-20, and covered the 2½ point line.

On the same weekend in October; the Eagles overcame a bad spot while beating the Cowboys, and the Chiefs failed at home against a high quality opponent.

At the first turn, the Eagles are better than the Chiefs.

Kansas City proved the next week that they could bounce off a loss with a big effort, and downed the talented San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium, 44-23. A week later, the Eagles resumed their games following their Week Seven bye, and in a soft spot motivationally, they clobbered the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers, 35-13.

Yes, these are two very good teams, but one has the ability to win in a bad spot, and the other a tendency to get beat when the factors weigh against them.

Last week, in the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs had a bevy of motivational factors in their favor for their contest against the Cincinnati Bengals. Even with all that, Kansas City barely eked out a narrow win that was as shaky as a four-year-old shooting from the free throw line.

The Eagles came into this week’s Super Bowl off an easy win over the 49ers, 31-7, that was as suspect as a man covering his face with a ski mask in the bank. The 49ers were forced to play without a quarterback that could throw. Brock Purdy was injured on the opening series and backup Josh Johnson was knocked out of the contest with a head injury. Still, the Eagles won … and you shouldn’t fault them for not getting the 49ers best.

Or, maybe you should.

After all, the injury to Purdy was inflicted while he was being captured by the Eagles defensive front, which accounted for a league high 70 sacks during the regular season and has added eight more in two postseason games. The Chiefs are second in quarterback sacks, throwing opposing quarterbacks for losses 55 times in the regular season and seven more in their two postseast games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Bengals.

Another significant statistic is how few times Patrick Mahomes has been thrown for a loss while attempting to pass; 26 times in the regular season and an additional three times in the playoffs. Problem is, those three sacks in the postseason came after Mahomes suffered an ankle injury, and while two weeks rest is no doubt positive for his recovery, high ankle sprains do not heal in three weeks.

This game has all the elements of being won in the trenches, and the Eagles have the edge on both sides of the ball. It is their offensive and defensive lines most responsible for Philadelphia being the last team to fall from the unbeaten ranks and gaining the top seed in the NFC playoffs.

Now that same team strength will be the primary reason they win Super Bowl LVII.

Qoxhi Picks: Philadelphia Eagles (-1½) over Kansas City Chiefs