On Monday, I was at lunch when a friend asked whether the favorite or underdog most often won the Super Bowl?
It is a basic question, but it is not the important one.
What matters is not the straight-up winner, but the point spread decision.
Whether the favorite or underdog wins more often in the Super Bowl is of little significance in comparison with what is more likely going to generate the result of Super Bowl LVII. National Football League final scores are driven by the unique circumstances that are present in every game. Most often, the drivers that dictate results are pinned to motivational factors.
Talent as good as the Baltimore Colts over the New York Jets, or New England Patriots over the New York Giants in the Super Bowl III and XLII matchups illustrate the point. The Colts were considered a team on par with the Green Bay Packers, who had downed the American Football League challenger by big scores in the first two Super Bowls. The Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points in Super Bowl I, 35-10, and outscored the Oakland Raiders by nearly three touchdowns in Super Bowl II, 33-14.
In the 1968 season, the Jets had beaten their most hated rival, the Raiders, in the AFL Title game. It could be assumed that was the top of the mountain for Joe Namath and company, and they would play a role similar to the Washington Generals in a game with the Harlem Globetrotters in Super Bowl III. The point spread had Don Shula’s Colts favored by 19 points. The game was the third in a four game schedule that the National Football League would play against the American Football League before merging into the American and National football conferences for the 1970 season.