Last week, the New Orleans Saints beat the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams and covered the point spread as a favorite in the Superdome.
If one had just dropped in on the 2022 season, they might think that was a big deal.
It wasn’t.
The Rams have already checked out on the 2022 season, less than a mere shadow of the team that won Super Bowl LVI ten months ago. You could blame the Rams dissent to the cellar in the NFC West Division on injuries, but they have not incurred more injuries than other teams that are continuing to work and earn victories this season.
No, the Rams problems are different, and they are attributable to both motivational and physical factors. When Los Angeles mortgaged their future in the acquisition of quarterback Matthew Stafford before the 2021 season they had an immediate call to action. They had to win a Super Bowl with Stafford behind center before the quality of the team around him succumbed to the likely downfall without high draft choices to rebuild an ever changing roster.
Mission accomplished.
They won the Super Bowl in Stafford’s first year in Los Angeles, and the edge they picked up with his acquisition to “have” to win with him behind center was replaced by air. Nothing left to prove.
Losing to this edition of the Rams is akin to losing to any last place team over the years in the NFL. So is this a story supporting a wager against the Rams this week when they are getting more than two touchdowns on the point spread for their contest against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium?
No.
This is a story about how the Saints get credit for beating the Rams and are now headed into the exactly opposite set of circumstances. Last Sunday, the Saints were favored over the Rams at home and won. This week, they are underdogs to the San Francisco 49ers and are going to lose.
Lose big.
While the Rams beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game last year en route to their win over the Cincinnati Bengals in the Super Bowl, it is now the 49ers that are on the prowl. They are looking for immediate wins after they traded away high draft choices first to move up in the 2021 draft to acquire quarterback Trey Lance, and this season to add Christian McCaffrey to an already potent attack.
The Lance addition has not yet paid dividends.
Expected to be the starter this year while replacing Jimmy Garoppolo, things didn’t go well for the second-year signal caller out of North Dakota State University. He suffered a season ending injury in the 49ers second week game against the Seattle Seahawks and that followed a 49ers loss in their opening game on the road against the Chicago Bears.
With Lance injured, the 49ers replaced him with Garoppolo, luckily still on their roster when no one offered enough to acquire him even with the 49ers shopping his services.
Now the 49ers did not start this season like world beaters, they lost a trio of road games over the first six weeks of the season versus teams they were favored against on the point spread. In addition to the loss at Soldier Field, the 49ers were defeated by the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons in their home stadiums.
Then, the 49ers season hit a low point five weeks ago, when in the same week they added McCaffrey to their roster they were blown out at Levi’s Stadium by the Chiefs, 44-23.
What does that mean to us at Qoxhi?
It means that the 49ers won/loss record and their actual talent is way out of balance. The 49ers are a lot better than their 3-4 season mark would indicate after their loss to the Chiefs, and San Francisco has shown that to be true with three straight wins over the Rams, Los Angeles Chargers and Arizona Cardinals.
So, what do we have on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium?
A 49ers team that by our charts have already suffered all the losses for the season in relation to their talent, and a Saints squad that comes marching into the San Francisco home stadium with as much of a chance of winning this game as a contest already scored in the loss column.
Qoxhi Picks: San Francisco 49ers (-9) over New Orleans Saints.