The New York Jets host the Kansas City Chiefs tonight in a game that before the season began looked like a matchup between two Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

Now, not so much.

On his first series of downs as a member of the Jets, future first ballot inductee Aaron Rodgers suffered a season ending injury. The loss of Rodgers forced the Jets to turn to one-time first round draft choice, and major disappointment, Zach Wilson. The Jets were hosting the Buffalo Bills in their season opening game when they lost Rodgers and Sean McDermott’s team took a ten point lead to the halftime locker room.

Perhaps the Bills should have saved some of that champagne for after the game, because they were caught in the fourth quarter and lost in overtime on a punt return. Since then, the Bills have refocused their efforts and run off three straight wins, including today’s impressive victory over the previously unbeaten Miami Dolphins.

As for the Jets, they have crashed in their last two efforts, losses to the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots. The quarterback position remains a glaring weakness for the team from New York that wears green, and there are constant rumors around Jets headquarters of making a move to bring in a veteran signal caller.

So far, nothing has come to fruition, and Wilson is still starting for head coach Robert Saleh.

Tonight, they meet a team as far away from needing a quarterback as there is in the league. The Chiefs will line up tonight at MetLife Stadium with the undeniably best quarterback in the game today, Patrick Mahomes.

So, take the Chiefs to route the injured Jets?

Not so fast.

Kansas City is coming off a romp victory over the Chicago Bears last week, 41-10, and in the first two games this year they looked pretty average. Losing their opener to the Detroit Lions at Arrowhead Stadium and getting challenged on the road in second week action before edging the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Is tonight a repeat of last week’s blowout win?

Likely not.

This is the perfect spot for the Jets defense to assert itself and New York to hang with Andy Reid’s overconfident squad.

The wise guys are on the Jets tonight, I’m not ready to board that side with still major concerns about the New York offense.

Yet, I’m taking a lead from the wise guy money more as a caution not to side with the Chiefs, but still not confident enough in the Jets offense to back their prospects.

Every position on the field; quarterback, runningback, linebacker, receiver, offensive lineman, kicker, punter, defensive lineman, safety and corner, all of them, have had more than one athlete win a Super Bowl for one team and then go on to another squad and win another Vince Lombardi Trophy.

You know the one position on a team that has never had a man win a Super Bowl with one team and then go on to win again with another franchise?

Head coach.

Bill Parcells won two Super Bowls with the New York Giants, got back to the big game with the New England Patriots and into the playoffs as head coach of the New York Jets, but didn’t capture a second Super Bowl after his success with the Giants. Vince Lombardi won the first two Super Bowls with the Green Bay Packers, but when he moved on to Washington he didn’t get close.

Tom Flores won a pair of Super Bowl rings as head coach of the Raiders, but didn’t have the same success when he mentored the Seattle Seahawks. George Seifert, Jimmy Johnson, Mike Ditka, Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan and Tom Coughlin all won Super Bowls at their initial head coaching posts but failed in future attempts with new assignments.

Today, there are three current NFL head coaches who have won Super Bowls at their initial head coaching post and are trying to lead a second team to the promiseland. Those men are Mike McCarthy, Doug Pederson and Sean Payton. McCarthy won with the Green Bay Packers to complete the 2010 season and now mentors the Dallas Cowboys. Current Denver Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton led the New Orleans Saints to a win in Super Bowl XLIV and now works the sideline with the Denver Broncos. Doug Pederson led the Philadelphia Eagles to the title six years ago and now plies his trade in Jacksonville for the Jaguars.

This year, only McCarthy of that trio working now , appears to have a solid chance to be the first to lead a team to a Super Bowl win with a second franchise. The Jaguars have won only one of their first three outings this season and the Broncos have lost all three of their 2023 games. The most recent Denver loss is notable because they allowed 70 points, the first time a team has surrendered that many since 1966 and only the third time in NFL history.

What I find interesting about these facts is that all three of these coaches, despite having a combined 3-6 straight-up record this season, are favored in tomorrow’s games. Okay, the Cowboys, who beat the Giants and Jets before being upset by the Arizona Cardinals last week, are certainly understandable as a favorite this week at home against the New England Patriots. Even the Jaguars, who have lost two straight after opening with a win over the Indianapolis Colts, perhaps deserve to be favored for their game in London against the Atlanta Falcons.

But the Broncos?

How can this underachieving squad in Payton’s first year with the team be favored? Does somebody have advance word that their scheduled opponent is not going to show up this Sunday?

No, the Broncos are favored, and the line has gone up with heavy public backing, for their game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. A Broncos team that lost their first two games at home to the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders and then got pulverized in Miami by a 70-20 score is now favored for the third time this season and the public likes their chances?

It’s all because of Chicago.

The Bears opened this season as a favorite against their NFC North Division rival Green Bay, and lost by double-digits, 38-20. They lost by double-digits in Tampa during second week action to the Buccaneers, 27-17. Last week, they met their first quality team, and they got crushed by the Kansas City Chiefs, 41-10.

So, the public sees the Bears as something worse than a winless squad that just gave up 70 points.

Here is the formula on this one; when a team is a road favorite not because they are good but because of the perception of their opponent, the underappreciated home team has a huge advantage.

And, let’s get real, if the Bears are going to come out of hibernation and win a game, they are going to have to have a huge advantage.

They do.

Qoxhi Picks: Chicago Bears (+3½) over Denver Broncos

Three weeks into the 2023 National Football League season finds that 28 of the 32 teams have won at least one game … four have not. That quartet of three-time losers are playing each other this Sunday. The four teams that have lost their first three games are the Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers.

The Broncos, who play at Soldier Field on Sunday against the winless Bears, still have public opinion on their side. Last year, when they acquired Russell Wilson from the Denver Broncos, fans in the Mile High City thought he would be the last cog in a return to championship form. Didn’t work out that way, so the Broncos determined that the problem was with their coaching and went out and hired the longtime successful coach of the New Orleans Saints, Sean Payton.

So far, the Broncos search for success with a player who seemingly enjoyed his best days in Seattle and a coach who won a Super Bowl in New Orleans, hasn’t turned out well for Denver.

The Bears, who started this season with optimism that this would be the year for their third-year quarterback, Justin Fields, to emerge are quickly losing faith that they yet have the personnel in the Windy City to succeed. This is a Chicago squad that opened the season as a point spread favorite over their NFC North Division rivals, the Green Bay Packers. They lost that game by 18 points and followed with double-digit losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs.

On Sunday, they are underdogs at home to the winless Broncos.

In 2022, the Minnesota Vikings had the second best won/loss record in the NFC, 13-4, but were knocked out of the playoffs in the Wild Card weekend by the New York Giants. Not much has gone right for Kevin O’Connell’s team since they finished last season winning the NFC North Division. They lost all three of their preseason games this year, nothing new or necessarily significant given the Vikings haven’t won a summer game since 2019, but the three losses to open this season is significant.

So, did they play three powerhouses leading into Sunday’s road favorite role against the Carolina Panthers?

No.

They did fall to the defending NFC Champion Eagles in second week action, but bookended that loss with a defeat on their home field to the suspect Tampa Bay Buccaneers and last Sunday, again at home, handed the Los Angeles Chargers their first win of the season. This week, they are one of the most bet teams when they visit the Panthers.

The Panthers must be really bad, huh?

In fact, among the four winless teams this season, the Panthers may be the closest to getting good.

While the Broncos seem to have all the pieces, they are misfiring like an eight cylinder engine with water in the gas tank. The Bears appear rudderless at this point and the Vikings direction is moving away from success and has them in discussions to jettison their quarterback, Kirk Cousins, out of town.

Whereas in Carolina, they have both a new head coach in Frank Reich and used the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to tab quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers had the first pick in last April’s allocation of college talent through a trade with the Chicago Bears.

Quarterbacks are always the key to success in the NFL, and finding a franchise signal caller can often be a hit-and-miss proposition. In 2017, Chicago was in search of a man to lead their offense and drafted Mitch Trubisky while leaving Patrick Mahomes available for the Kansas CIty Chiefs to select later in the first round.

The Panthers made Young the first pick in this year’s draft, and if the other signal callers selected at the top of the round, C.J. Stroud by Houston or Anthony Richardson by Indianapolis, outperform Young then Carolina will be saddled with the same regrets the Bears have endured by selecting Trubisky over Mahomes.

There is also the possibility that another quarterback out of last year’s draft will succeed beyond expectations. Clear examples of this are Tom Brady, who was a sixth round choice of the New England Patriots in 2000, or what the 49ers scored last year when they chose Brock Purdy with the last pick in the seventh round.

So, if Young turns to gold in Carolina, while they appear to have many of the other pieces of a championship puzzle in place, then of the four winless teams this year the squad best positioned to rise to a championship level in seasons to come is Reich’s squad.

Last week, Young was held out of action with a mild ankle injury, not to risk the ankle to be aggravated and a longer term problem. This week, he has shown no limitations in practice from the ankle injury and is expected to start on Sunday against the Vikings. His backup, Andy Dalton, who failed to get the Panthers a win last week in Seattle, is nevertheless a reliable backup.

So, the public likes the Vikings in this one and I don’t.

Qoxhi Picks: Carolina Panthers (+4) over Minnesota Vikings