A pair of AFC North Division teams square off tonight to complete Week 8 of the National Football League regular season. The Cleveland Browns host the defending AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals in a contest set to kickoff at 5:15 Pacific Time.

Before the season began, I had these two teams scheduled to do what I thought was in perfect alignment with historical patterns. The Bengals came from years of losing seasons to advance to the Super Bowl last year. And while they lost that game to the Los Angeles Rams, they held the lead for most of the second half and did end up on the right side of the point spread decision while the Rams triumphed, 23-20.

How did the Bengals get to the Super Bowl after years of struggling?

They did it mostly by way of motivation. That is not to say they don’t have some star power on this team, namely quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’mar Chase. These two talented athletes were teammates at LSU and won the national championship, then, one year after drafting Burrow with the first pick in the draft, the Bengals picked Chase with the fifth overall selection in the 2021 allocation of college talent.

Wait, did you notice that the year after the Bengals added Burrow to their roster they were still a losing team and making selections at the top of the NFL draft? Then, with Chase, boom they go to the Super Bowl.

Here is what I expected from the Bengals this year, a down season and a particularly tough time against the point spread.

Why?

Because historically a team that comes from the bottom of the standings to a playoff berth, let alone a Super Bowl appearance, routinely has trouble the following year. That is because their success was built on overcoming a bad season, a much better motivational situation than trying to defend success. It is the simple equation where one season expectations are below actual talent, and the next year expectations exceed actual talent.

So, on Qoxhi charts the Bengals are a go against team this year.

Started that way, the Bengals lost their opener at home to a talent depleted Pittsburgh Steelers squad and were the first victim of the Cooper Rush wins in Dallas in second week action.

Then, unexpectedly, Cincinnati bounced off those two losses with an impressive performance as a home favorite against an improved New York Jets squad … and they haven’t lost a point spread decision since. The Bengals have won four of their most recent five games straight-up and all five against the point spread.

Now here is an interesting fact, they are doing this while Burrow is the most sacked quarterback in the league coming into eighth week action. Their offensive line is a work in progress, as it was even last year when they advanced to the Super Bowl. In fact, the Bengals were the first team in NFL history to win a playoff game while their quarterback was sacked nine times when they beat the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round last January.

So, do we hop on the Bengals train now that they seem to have overcome the problems a team usually endures after a breakthrough campaign?

I think not.

In fact, tonight they are forced to play without Chase, who will be sidelined at least a few weeks with a torn labrum and hairline fracture in his hip. Most players would have been sent to the injured reserve list with this injury, but the Bengals have avoided that in hopes he can return sooner than that designation would have dictated.

The Browns case this year?

Well, they are waiting for Week 13 when super talented quarterback Deshaun Watson is done serving his suspension and ready to step into the starting quarterback role. To have that be meaningful, Cleveland needs to get some wins while backup Jacoby Brissett is in the starting role.

So far, not so good for Cleveland.

They have won only two of their seven games and a loss here would put their playoff prospects on life-support.

In other words, the Bengals are down a player and the Browns are in need of a win.

I’ll take the win.

Qoxhi Picks: Cleveland Browns (+3) over Cincinnati Bengals