Both New York teams are lighting it up in the National Football League this season, and a close examination of their division races is one explanation for their success.
It is a lot easier for a team to excel when they are struggling to get to the top as opposed to the added pressure of attempting to hold first place. If the Giants journey to a 6-1 record included leading the NFC East Division, there would have been more pressure on them continuing their winning ways. But, once they were beaten by the Dallas Cowboys in the third week they have been chasing the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles ever since.
Today, the Giants are in Seattle to meet a surprise division leader, the Seattle Seahawks. Pete Carroll’s Seahawks hold a one win advantage over the rest of the NFC West, which includes the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks have won four of their seven decisions this season, the rest of the NFC West have all have three wins.
The Jets are also flying high, winning five of their first seven games. Sunday, they host the New England Patriots with a chance to put three games between themselves and their longtime rivals. While the Jets have won five games this year, they have never been alone in first place in the AFC East Division. The Buffalo Bills have held the top spot since opening day when they beat the Los Angeles Rams in the season primetime opener. Three days later, the Jets opened their campaign on the wrong side of a 24-9 score against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Jets had an opportunity to claim a portion of first place in the AFC East when the Bills lost in a third week contest against the Dolphins in Miami, but the Jets got beat that same weekend by the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-12.
They haven’t lost since, and they have always trailed the Bills by a game in the standings.
Think of it like the Giants and Jets are in a NASCAR race where the second place driver can take advantage of drafting off the front runner. Both New York teams have had the advantage of chasing teams with better records this year.
How long can this go on?
I admire how the Giants are playing football. They run the ball better than any team in the league, keep passing attempts to a minimum and have an excellent defense. That is the kind of proficiency that points to a winner.
The Giants could win today in Seattle.
We expect the Jets will have a lot more trouble at home when Bill Belichick and his Patriots bounce off an embarrassing Monday Night Football loss to the Chicago Bears, 33-14. This is nothing against the Jets, I think their second-year quarterback, Zach Wilson, is destined for stardom and will someday lead the Jets to a Super Bowl win.
The problem in this game is not the Jets, it is the math.
For the New York team that wears green to win here they would have to create a three game bulge between them and the always competitive Patriots. By the numbers, it seems much more likely that the Patriots avoid falling out of the AFC East race this early in the season and not allow the Jets to pull away.
By day’s end, I expect the gap between these two AFC East opponents to be one game. The Jets will still be ahead, but to expect them to push New England three games back is just not how this situation usually plays out.
Qoxhi Picks: New England Patriots (-2½) over New York Jets