The NFC North Division split their four games over the opening weekend. One of the usual suspects for problems lost their opener, the Detroit Lions were beaten by the Philadelphia Eagles, 38-35. The second weak link in the division, the Chicago Bears, notched a home win over the San Francisco 49ers. Chicago recovered from a 10-0 third quarter deficit with 19 unanswered points enroute to a nine point win.
The historically good teams in the division played each other in opening week action, and the Minnesota Vikings drubbed the Green Bay Packers at US Bank Stadium, 23-7.
This week, one of the good teams that lost the opening week meets one of the troubled teams in the NFC North that is coming off a win. What this means is that for the Bears to gain a second straight victory they would have to hand the Green Bay Packers a second straight loss.
Now, this is what Chicago fans are hoping for, that their future will be bright with Justin Fields running their offense and leading the Monsters of the Midway to a Super Bowl ring. For Fields to score a second win this week it would no doubt cast great doubt on the future of Packers Quarterback Aaron Rodgers. We know he is playing without all the offensive weapons he had last season, and maybe the Chicago fans have reached the time where their team emerges and Rodgers fades into the sunset.
Wanna bet?
Aaron Rodgers and company entered the season as one of the favorites to win the NFC, if that is true, even just a contender, they are not going to drop a second straight game. Especially this one, that represents their Lambeau Field opener for 2022 and against a Bears squad flush off a win.
The Packers win this one as sure as the sun rises in the east, but whether they beat the point spread is the real question. Green Bay is favored by ten points. While only 16% of NFL games shift the straight-up winner to a point spread loser, when a team is favored by double digits, the line comes into play 47% of the time.
Does that mean the Bears with the points has at least a 50% chance of winning the wager, or said another way, the Packers only have a 50% chance of covering this huge number?
No.
Stats are interesting to research and can point a handicapper in the right direction, but more important than any stat is the unique attributes present in a specific game. While nearly half of the 240 wins double digit favorites have earned over the past decade have been turned by the point spread, their point spread record is 139-135-8, clearly more important factors are at play in deciding winners than simply the line.
If the Packers are at least a shadow of the team they are expected to be this season, they bounce off their loss in Minnesota with a big home effort. And who could be a better victim of their rebound than a weak team visiting off a home win?
Can’t think of any.
Qoxhi Picks: Green Bay Packers (-10) over Chicago Bears