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Los Angeles Chargers Head Coach Brandon Staley is saying his starting quarterback is day-to-day and questionable for Sunday’s home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Spoiler alert … Justin Herbert is not going to play on Sunday after suffering a fractured rib cage injury in last Thursday’s game at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs. How do I know Herbert will not see action on Sunday, the line told me.

On Friday, the point spread on the Chargers/Jaguars game was taken off the board, this was done when the people with the most resources in the game, the bookmakers, confirmed whether Herbert was going to play or not. When they posted a new number in the afternoon that had Los Angeles favored by three points, down from seven points, we can know that they have reliable information that Herbert is a no go.

So, what do we have here?

The Chargers without Herbert will be starting longtime veteran backup Chase Daniels. It appears by all accounts that the dropoff at quarterback has the Chargers and Jaguars as equally talented. That is, allowing the common three point advantage awarded to a home team, making a three point favorite role for the squad at home an indicator that the two teams on a neutral field would be a pick ‘em.

Do you think the Chargers and Jaguars are equal with or without Herbert in the starting lineup?

I don’t.

And that doesn’t end the advantages for the home team on Sunday. Consider this, the Jaguars are coming off a rare win, they beat the Indianapolis Colts last week in convincing fashion, 24-0, and now look to earn their first two game winning streak since 2019. Head Coach Doug Pederson is in his first year with Jacksonville, and the top pick in the 2021 draft, Trevor Lawrence, appears to have gained confidence entering his second pro campaign. Typically, by a third NFL season, a young quarterback will have the game “slow down” for them to allow their talent to flourish.

There is little doubt that Lawrence is going to be a top quarterback in this league, and that the Jaguars are in the building process to bring a championship to Jacksonville. But, is this a little too early to consider their skills on a par with the Chargers even though they can own the quarterback edge when comparing Lawrence with Daniels?

Yes.

Particularly when considering Daniels gets something that Lawrence doesn’t in this matchup, a highly motivated team to work with.

The Chargers know how much they count on the extra special skills of Herbert, but Daniels is perfectly capable of leading the Chargers to a win. Perhaps that should be stated as Daniels following the Chargers to a win, when both the Los Angeles offense and defense are inspired to compensate for the loss of their starting QB.

Often, a talented team that is inspired to compensate for the loss of their starting quarterback has a big first week for the back-up pressed into duty. We saw it last Sunday, when Cooper Rush had to fill in for an injured Dak Prescott and the Cowboys circled the wagons in a win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

After they get that initial win, a team will often lose the motivational edge that drove their initial victory and fall flat their next time out. On Monday night, that is the trap the Cowboys are in when they visit the New York Giants.

As for the Chargers, they are on the right side of this motivational spike and dip for their Sunday contest against the Jaguars.

Qoxhi Picks: Los Angeles Chargers (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Is this the year the Detroit Lions break out of years of losing seasons and surprise the football world?

In their opener, they battled the talented Philadelphia Eagles to a competitive loss, 38-35. Last week, the Lions picked up their second straight point spread win and first straight-up victory of the season with a convincing effort against the Washington Commanders, 36-27. In two games the Lions have scored an NFC high 71 points, a number matched in the AFC by the Kansas City Chiefs.

Okay, before we get carried away, realize that defense counts for something in the NFL too, and the Lions have allowed more points in the NFC than every team except the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have allowed 67 points in splitting their two contests, the Lions 65.

Still, to see the Lions competitive on consecutive weeks while under the direction of a quarterback that once led his team to a Super Bowl is uplifting for the fans in the Motor City. Their quarterback, Jared Goff, got the Los Angeles Rams into the big game only to fall short against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII.

This week, the Lions are getting six points on the spread against NFC North Division rival Minnesota. The Vikings, like Detroit, have split their first two contests this season. Minnesota opened with a win over the Green Bay Packers before coming up with a flat effort on Monday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Their win against Green Bay was in Minnesota., their loss on the road.

The Vikings are at home this week and off that stinging defeat at Lincoln Financial Field look to at least keep pace with either the Chicago Bears or Green Bay Packers if they win their Week Three games. The Bears host the Houston Texans and the Packers meet Tom Brady and his Buccaneers in Florida.

The NFC North Division has all four teams in the group with one win and one loss. A win by Detroit on Sunday in Minnesota could conceivably vault them to the top of their division by Sunday night. The Packers are underdogs in Tampa Bay, and the Bears are no cinch to handle the improved Texans.

Detroit alone in first place, wouldn’t that be a dream come true for the long suffering fans of the team that plays their home games at Ford Field?

Dream on.

In the real world, what we have set up for Sunday is all the ingredients for a convincing Minnesota victory. The better team, the Vikings, going home off a loss while the Lions go on the road following a win.

The Lions would have to be real, real good to beat the Vikings in this spot.

They’re not.

Qoxhi Picks: Minnesota Vikings (-6) over Detroit Lions

If the Cleveland Browns were charted on a Richter Scale their line would look like San Francisco, 1906.

In the most recent six seasons the Browns have had one winning year, 2020, when they won eleven games and qualified for the postseason as a Wild Card behind the AFC North Division winning Pittsburgh Steelers. The Browns previous winning season was in 2002, when they earned a Wild Card berth with a 9-7 record while the Steelers once again won the division. That year, the Browns won their playoff game against the Steelers.

Wait a minute, they didn’t win the game outright, but getting eight on the point spread was enough to win the wager in a 36-33 loss. Since that heartbreak in Pittsburgh to open the 2002 playoffs, the Browns had not been back to the playoffs for 17 years. Then, two years ago, they put together another winning campaign, 11-5, and again were beaten out for the division title by Pittsburgh, who earned a division winning 12-4 campaign in 2020.

But two seasons ago the Browns didn’t get clipped in Pittsburgh, instead they turned the tables on the Steelers and took them down on their home field, 48-37. The next week, in an AFC divisional round contest, Cleveland was eliminated by the Kansas City Chiefs, 22-17, which represented another NFL postseason game that shifted the straight-up winner by virtue of the point spread.

The amazing thing about the 2020 Cleveland Browns is not that they got a win in Pittsburgh against their most hated rival, but that while they were compiling their 11-5 straight-up record their point spread mark on those same 16 regular season games was six wins and ten losses. In my nearly half a century of tracking football teams I had never seen a team that had their first winning season in 18 years and already be overrated by the books and public.

Most often, this is a spot where a first time winner will further benefit against the point spread in their first triumphant season. Typically, if when a longtime loser bursts out like the Cleveland Browns with 11 straight-up wins, their point spread record would be three games better than their straight up mark. That would plot the Browns 2020 point spread record at 14-2. Instead, they were 6-10.

I don’t know what the attraction is to the Cleveland Browns, it certainly can’t be pinned on their record for the past two decades. Only one winning season since 2002 and a last place finish in most seasons with only four or five wins. Beginning in 2016, the Browns went on the worst losing streak in NFL history, going 1-15 before losing all sixteen of their games in 2017.

Their winless campaign gave the Browns organization the first pick in the 2018 draft, which offered them the choice of the four quarterbacks that would be selected in the first ten picks that year. The Browns chose Baker Mayfield, who they recently shipped to the Carolina Panthers. The Jets picked Sam Darnold with the third pick, he is also currently in the Panthers organization. The tenth pick that year was used by the Arizona Cardinals and wasted on UCLA product Josh Rosen.

The only quarterback selected that year that has turned into a bonafide franchise quarterback is the guy selected with the seventh pick in the first round by the Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen.

But back to tonight’s game, where the Browns are favored over Pittsburgh. The Browns would like to think they have a heated rivalry against the Steelers, but in truth Pittsburgh has a lot more intense rivalry against their two other AFC North Division opponents; the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals.

So the Browns are overrated on the point spread, they haven’t had a winning season against the line in twenty years, and on opening day this year I thought they were for the first time in years underrated. The quarterback acquisition that forced Cleveland’s hand to cut ties with Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, won’t be available until Week 13. Holding down the quarterback position in Cleveland while Watson serves his suspicion is journeyman backup Jacoby Brissett.

Even as an underdog and perfectly motivated, the Browns required a late field goal from long distance to eke out a two point win in their opener against the Panthers. Last week, at home against the winless New York Jets, the Browns were once again overrated, favored by 6½ points in a game they lost, 31-30. This week, they opened as three point favorites over the Steelers, which would have been a real good number to lay with the Browns at home.

But, even while the public is heavily vested in the Steelers, nearly 70% of all wagers on this game are backing Pittsburgh as the underdog, the books moved the line up to make a Steelers wager easier and easier.

This week, the public has the Browns underrated, the books don’t.

This is a good time to remember that point spreads only come into play 16% of the time, and if we lose against the spread tonight we got the short straw. But Cleveland winning this game is what they call on the playgrounds in New Jersey, a slam dunk.

I like to call it an 84% probability.

Qoxhi Picks: Cleveland Browns (-4) over Pittsburgh Steelers