It would be nice if every great National Football League matchup also offered a clear wagering edge.
They don’t.
We can’t imagine a better matchup for a primetime game than the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. A pair of teams with offenses that light up scoreboards at a pace higher than most, and both coming off important opening weekend wins. The Chiefs scored 44 points on the road in their win over the Arizona Cardinals, and the Chargers able to tally all they needed to win the game and cover the point spread against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Chiefs at home seems to be a pretty good place to start when trying to find an edge worth an investment. Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes last week, is he due to match or top that? Can the prolific Kansas City quarterback have as easy of a time putting up points against the Chargers defense as he did on the road last Sunday in Arizona?
What do the Chargers have to offer?
I spent most of the offseason anticipating that the Los Angeles Chargers would be my Super Bowl pick this season. Then I saw something that has consistently spelled doom for a team; the Chargers had not yet won a division or cracked the playoff field and expectations for Brandon Staley’s team had their odds of winning the Super Bowl at 10-1. Those odds are the kind reserved for the Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers in some of their best seasons.
What I’m saying here is that when expectations exceed actual talent and motivational factors, a team fails. While I like the Chargers from a personnel perspective, that trend against them cooled me on their Super Bowl chances.
So, I’m off the Chargers for my Super Bowl pick, going instead with a team that is also following a season in which they missed the playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens, with a lot better odds, 17-1.
The first real test for the Chargers to live up to their lofty projections comes tonight when they take on their AFC West Division rivals. While the season-long odds on the Chargers are too short, the point spread on this game has swelled in the Chargers getting more than a field goal on the line. Los Angeles was getting three points on the early line, and significant public backing of the home-standing Chiefs has driven the number up to four points. A half-point higher in some locations.
Home teams in Thursday night matchups, particularly against teams that have traveled a long distance, have a measurable advantage. This early in a season, when teams are just beginning to work themselves into game shape with rhythm and timing, having one less day of practice and having to travel puts the Chargers in a particularly troublesome spot.
Knowing Mahomes has had one more day of practice and no travel heading into this game is a physical advantage for the Chiefs, but the motivation the Chargers are sparked with to overcome the Chiefs obvious strengths, swings the pendulum of advantage the visitors way.
The reason I came off the Chargers for a Super Bowl pick was that expectations were too high which can cause a dip in performance. Tonight, the Chargers are challenged both as underdogs on the line and in the mind's eye.
The Chiefs have some advantages for this game, but the Chargers are the team knowing they need to play their best and might still not win. That motivation is tough to beat with any collection of talent.
Qoxhi Picks: Los Angeles Chargers (+4) over Kansas City Chiefs