The Buffalo Bills.

How can any conversation in 2022 not carry the attributes of the Bills chances of winning next February’s Super Bowl. They have been on the doorstep the prior two seasons, losing both times to the Kansas City Chiefs. In 2020, the Bills lost the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium, and last season lost a Divisional round game. Now they appear pointed on a clear path to their first ever franchise Super Bowl win.

Right now, on the eve of the 2022 National Football League regular season, the Bills have all the tickets that seem to key a Super Bowl trip. Josh Allen is among the quarterback’s spoken of with the reverence shown Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Their defense is top notch at every position and they benefit from a talented coaching staff.

Allen is entering his fifth pro season, one that has all the promise of generating spectacular results. So, a conversation of the teams with the best chances of hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy this season has to start with the Bills.

The more important question is, will it end with the Bills?

All physical prowess and coaching excellence aside, the Bills are in a horrible spot. This is a team that has not even been back to the big game since they lost their fourth straight to complete the 1993 season. And yet, they are the favorites, outdistancing the team that has been their nemesis in recent postseasons, the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Bills downfall could be attributed to their talent versus expectations chart. The expectations for this Bills squad is off the charts, and those kinds of high expectations in front of actual wins most often muddle a team’s motivation. Buffalo is a team that didn’t win it last year, or forever when considering the ultimate prize of a Super Bowl win. Now they are prohibitive favorites. A team that has never won with sky high expectations is not the kind of team that gains the motivational edge at the turns of a season.

I think the Bills motivational problems this season are in stark contrast to their impressive collection of talent and a winning system that is well coached. It is not so much that I doubt the Bills could win it all this season, but rather simply a case for why I see they won’t.

If motivation plays its familiar role, we can anticipate it pushing some teams to efforts that exceed their perceived talent level. This year, when push comes to shove, I will be willing to buck the Bills. Maybe even, this Thursday night when they are the guests of the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium.

My story on the Bills winning Super Bowl LVII is over. I don’t think they are going to yet grab the brass ring in their long and challenging six decades of operation. Once the Bills are scratched, the list of potential Super Bowl winners expands. It has been proven to me that finding reasons for teams to not win is a lot better method in determining who is going to win than searching for reasons why teams are going to win.

I’ve got reasons to eliminate the Bills, and also have negative marks when considering the Chiefs. Their arc, from Championship Game loss, Super Bowl win, Super Bowl loss and Championship Game loss, is not indicative of a team headed into a championship season. If the AFC is not won by the Bills or Chiefs, who is next in line to grab the title?

The defending AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals? Not a chance. Following their breakthrough season after years of losing results, commonly points to a down year for a team confronting what the Bengals face this year. Perhaps the AFC title falls to the Denver Broncos as Wilson spins his magic at mile high.

Possible, not likely.

Who is the best in the NFC?

The Green Bay Packers come to mind first, it seems Aaron Rodgers has put together a career that would be punctuated with more than one Super Bowl appearance. He also picks up that key ingredient in any winning formula, the need to overcome. In the Packers case, it is the loss of wide receiver Davante Adams that can serve as a rallying cry for an already talented offense.

I can find reasons why this is a year too early for the San Francisco 49ers and their quarterback transition, but Kyle Shanahan’s team seems poised for a 2023 season that could be magical. The Rams don’t repeat, it just wouldn’t happen that way for a team that was not dominant from start to finish in their Super Bowl winning campaign. On my charts, the Rams have cashed their motivational chips, although that does not eliminate them from a potential big effort against the Buffalo Bills when they open defense of their Super Bowl season on Thursday night.

I spent much of the offseason sizing up the prospects of the Los Angeles Chargers, and came into the training camp season with them on top of my potential Super Bowl winning list. Now, as we are on the cusp of the 2022 season, there are a couple things against the Chargers. Here is a team that has dropped in Super Bowl odds to 10-1 even though their much heralded quarterback, Justin Herbert, has not yet guided his team into the playoffs. The Chargers seem to be poised for a pounce, but when expectations jump in front of a team’s ability to win, problems follow.

I’m not on the Chargers with current evidence supporting instead another AFC team; the Baltimore Ravens.

Can’t find any reason the Ravens don’t win this year.

They missed the playoffs last year in a season marred by injuries, and this season have expectations a notch below their actual talent level.

I’ve got reasons to think the Brady circus in Tampa Bay is going to go nowhere good, and the Philadelphia Eagles fail in an attempt to land back-to-back playoff berths.

Only two teams come up without reasons to fail, the Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers. I will have more on who I think will win that game next February when a season's worth of data will assist in the pick. But for right now, for all the right reasons, the team I think is going to win Super Bowl LVII is the one coached by John Harbaugh.

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