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Prime time with a twist.

That is what the Denver Broncos have been during the first three weeks of National Football League action. This off season, the Broncos acquired long-time Seattle Seahawks starting quarterback, Russell Wilson.

To add a twist to his first game with his new team, the NFL scheduled Wilson to meet his old team in his old home stadium in the first Monday night game of the year. It was a result that had the huge underdog Seattle Seahawks winning on their home field and beating their former field general.

Not what the Broncos expected with Wilson now on their side, but onto second week action with Denver looking to even their record in front of their home fans. They did, beating the Houston Texans while failing to cover the point spread. The Broncos were favored over the Texans by ten points, and needed a fourth quarter comeback to pull out a 16-9 decision.

Wilson had his first win as a Bronco, and Nathaniel Hackett notched his first victory as Denver’s head coach. Still, the Broncos were overrated on the point spread and that is what turned their straight-up win into a point spread loser.

After two weeks of being overrated, we may have just come to the juncture where the Broncos are underrated. Tonight’s game opened with Denver favored by 2½ points. As soon as the game was posted, that number shifted to the 49ers by 1½ points.

Somebody likes the 49ers a whole lot.

Most of the off-season was filled with talk about where Jimmy Garoppolo would end up for the 2022 season. When San Francisco didn’t deal him during the draft period thoughts went to the possibility that Garoppolo would be first in for a contending team that lost their starting quarterback.

Turns out, that is exactly what happened. Garoppolo is stepping in for an injured starter with a team that has legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. The surprise is, it’s the 49ers.

This is a match made in heaven. The quarterback that carried himself with grace and with a focus on what was best for the team now gets the chance of a lifetime to move back into the starting role.

I’m full-out rooting for Garoppolo to do well. I admire his poise during some very challenging situations in the quarterback transition from him to Trey Lance in San Francisco. Unfortunately, and Garoppolo would echo this too, the season ending injury suffered by Lance is a blow from all angles.

Last week, the San Francisco 49rs beat a Seattle team that had won 17 of the previous 21 games between these two NFC West Division rivals. This week, they face the quarterback who compiled that dominating edge, Russell Wilson.

This is a perfect spot as a home team underdog for this Denver team to benefit from being underrated. That gives a big edge to the home team in this game.

Go Broncos.

Then again, there is an argument to be made that the story Garoppolo would make if he took the 49ers back to the Super Bowl, and won it this time, is most intriguing. That possibility is just too juicy to let go without at least pondering the possibility. The 49ers have all the pieces and may be in better hands at least this year, with Garoppolo behind center.

This intersection between the Broncos, 49ers, Wilson and Garoppolo adds a twist that will reveal itself in weeks to come. That is, will Wilson catch his stride and rookie head coach Hackett take this team all the way, or are we on the cusp of one of the best sports stories ever?

We’ll know more after we see which team wins tonight.

Los Angeles Chargers Head Coach Brandon Staley is saying his starting quarterback is day-to-day and questionable for Sunday’s home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Spoiler alert … Justin Herbert is not going to play on Sunday after suffering a fractured rib cage injury in last Thursday’s game at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs. How do I know Herbert will not see action on Sunday, the line told me.

On Friday, the point spread on the Chargers/Jaguars game was taken off the board, this was done when the people with the most resources in the game, the bookmakers, confirmed whether Herbert was going to play or not. When they posted a new number in the afternoon that had Los Angeles favored by three points, down from seven points, we can know that they have reliable information that Herbert is a no go.

So, what do we have here?

The Chargers without Herbert will be starting longtime veteran backup Chase Daniels. It appears by all accounts that the dropoff at quarterback has the Chargers and Jaguars as equally talented. That is, allowing the common three point advantage awarded to a home team, making a three point favorite role for the squad at home an indicator that the two teams on a neutral field would be a pick ‘em.

Do you think the Chargers and Jaguars are equal with or without Herbert in the starting lineup?

I don’t.

And that doesn’t end the advantages for the home team on Sunday. Consider this, the Jaguars are coming off a rare win, they beat the Indianapolis Colts last week in convincing fashion, 24-0, and now look to earn their first two game winning streak since 2019. Head Coach Doug Pederson is in his first year with Jacksonville, and the top pick in the 2021 draft, Trevor Lawrence, appears to have gained confidence entering his second pro campaign. Typically, by a third NFL season, a young quarterback will have the game “slow down” for them to allow their talent to flourish.

There is little doubt that Lawrence is going to be a top quarterback in this league, and that the Jaguars are in the building process to bring a championship to Jacksonville. But, is this a little too early to consider their skills on a par with the Chargers even though they can own the quarterback edge when comparing Lawrence with Daniels?

Yes.

Particularly when considering Daniels gets something that Lawrence doesn’t in this matchup, a highly motivated team to work with.

The Chargers know how much they count on the extra special skills of Herbert, but Daniels is perfectly capable of leading the Chargers to a win. Perhaps that should be stated as Daniels following the Chargers to a win, when both the Los Angeles offense and defense are inspired to compensate for the loss of their starting QB.

Often, a talented team that is inspired to compensate for the loss of their starting quarterback has a big first week for the back-up pressed into duty. We saw it last Sunday, when Cooper Rush had to fill in for an injured Dak Prescott and the Cowboys circled the wagons in a win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

After they get that initial win, a team will often lose the motivational edge that drove their initial victory and fall flat their next time out. On Monday night, that is the trap the Cowboys are in when they visit the New York Giants.

As for the Chargers, they are on the right side of this motivational spike and dip for their Sunday contest against the Jaguars.

Qoxhi Picks: Los Angeles Chargers (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Is this the year the Detroit Lions break out of years of losing seasons and surprise the football world?

In their opener, they battled the talented Philadelphia Eagles to a competitive loss, 38-35. Last week, the Lions picked up their second straight point spread win and first straight-up victory of the season with a convincing effort against the Washington Commanders, 36-27. In two games the Lions have scored an NFC high 71 points, a number matched in the AFC by the Kansas City Chiefs.

Okay, before we get carried away, realize that defense counts for something in the NFL too, and the Lions have allowed more points in the NFC than every team except the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have allowed 67 points in splitting their two contests, the Lions 65.

Still, to see the Lions competitive on consecutive weeks while under the direction of a quarterback that once led his team to a Super Bowl is uplifting for the fans in the Motor City. Their quarterback, Jared Goff, got the Los Angeles Rams into the big game only to fall short against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII.

This week, the Lions are getting six points on the spread against NFC North Division rival Minnesota. The Vikings, like Detroit, have split their first two contests this season. Minnesota opened with a win over the Green Bay Packers before coming up with a flat effort on Monday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Their win against Green Bay was in Minnesota., their loss on the road.

The Vikings are at home this week and off that stinging defeat at Lincoln Financial Field look to at least keep pace with either the Chicago Bears or Green Bay Packers if they win their Week Three games. The Bears host the Houston Texans and the Packers meet Tom Brady and his Buccaneers in Florida.

The NFC North Division has all four teams in the group with one win and one loss. A win by Detroit on Sunday in Minnesota could conceivably vault them to the top of their division by Sunday night. The Packers are underdogs in Tampa Bay, and the Bears are no cinch to handle the improved Texans.

Detroit alone in first place, wouldn’t that be a dream come true for the long suffering fans of the team that plays their home games at Ford Field?

Dream on.

In the real world, what we have set up for Sunday is all the ingredients for a convincing Minnesota victory. The better team, the Vikings, going home off a loss while the Lions go on the road following a win.

The Lions would have to be real, real good to beat the Vikings in this spot.

They’re not.

Qoxhi Picks: Minnesota Vikings (-6) over Detroit Lions