Some confuse handicapping with predicting what came before will come again. More importantly, handicapping requires the ability to determine why something happened in previous games and whether it has objective reasons to repeat.

More often than not, what came before is highly subject to not occuring again when deciding factors indicate clear reasons for results to be reversed.

If one is to run to the window and wager on the Baltimore Ravens in the preseason just because they have won 20 consecutive games this time of the season they might be out of luck.

Or not.

Why has Head Coach John Harbaugh won 20 consecutive preseason games and covered the point spread in 18 of those with only a single loss against the number and one tie? The only loss against the line for the Ravens was in the 2018 Hall of Fame Game, a contest Baltimore won 17-16 over the Chicago Bears while giving 2½ points on the line. Two weeks later, against the Indianapolis Colts on the road, they incurred their point spread push while favored by one and beating the Colts, 20-19.

This week, the Ravens are the heaviest favorite on the board, giving five points for their home contest against the Tennessee Titans. This game opened with the Ravens favored by 2½ points, and since posting that opening number the books have responded to the public backing of Harbaugh and his exceptional preseason mark with the additional 2½ points on the line.

Two things are present here, first, the books opened the game with the Ravens a decided favorites for a preseason game and are still fishing for Tennessee money with their ongoing spread shifts. Which leaves us with a couple questions; is backing the Ravens based on their past success a good bet on Thursday, or have the books priced the Ravens on the spread into a bad play?

First, no single factor in finding preseason winners is more crucial than coaching philosophy. During the preseason, coaches tell the truth in what they are looking to get done on any given game day. Most coaches, particularly those on established winning teams, are much more concerned about doing what is necessary to prepare their squads for the games that count beginning next month.

There will be games where a coach on one team will declare what his primary objective is this week, sometimes geared to test a new scheme or simply get some marginal players on game film to determine final cuts. When those objectives run smack into a team that has had trouble winning regular season games and look to establish some winning tradition and sell season tickets with preseason wins, we have an opportunity not available in the regular or postseason. A game in which only one side is interested in winning the game on the scoreboard.

That is an edge worth wagering on, and because coaches are not looking to gain a competitive edge against their opponent by hiding their game day intentions the writing on the wall offers a discernible advantage.

Harbaugh likes to win every game, that is a coaching philosophy worth wagering on in the preseason. But, this week, the books have priced the Ravens so high they have greatly reduced Baltimore’s advantage on a wager. It is worth noting that of the Ravens 20 consecutive preseason wins that have had a winning margin of six or more points only 13 times.

Which leaves us with this.

Betting against the Ravens in the preseason is not the way I would want to go. Laying five points in their first outing of the year is way too high of a price. One can not make a good bet with a bad line and we can be certain that the Ravens preseason success is a target the books are out to reverse.