I told you so.
Could there be a more aggravating comment from someone after you suffer a loss than that?
It is so irresponsible, taking credit for only what they know, what they may have said, without any compassion for what is, what really occurred. And yet, perhaps there is something to be learned from this spirit stabbing comment.
What did they tell us before a loss? What are they referring to now? If they were right, why didn’t I see it before a negative result?
This morning, following perhaps the most exciting set of four professional football games in the history of the league, contests that were all decided on the last play of the game, what is telling me I told you so is a research study on my desk. Here is what it reveals, and I can tell you now, after the fact, because I also chronicled it last week in this very space. That is, no team has ever won a Super Bowl that lost both sides of their bye week games and only one team out of the 55 previous winners lost at home on opening day and went on to win the Super Bowl.
I knew, and said, and in retrospect should have listened to that study that showed five of the eight teams entering the exciting Divisional Round we just completed had compiled one of these Super Bowl eliminating factors. Both the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans lost on opening day in front of their home fans. The Bills were surprised by the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Titans were dominated by the Arizona Cardinals.
Had I followed that stat alone, the two losers we suffered this weekend could have been eliminated.
Since the NFL introduced the regular season bye weeks in 1990, 31 champions have been crowned and none of them lost games on both sides of their regular season open date. In fact, only four Super Bowl winning teams lost the game heading into their bye week and four other teams lost the first game after their week off.
The San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all lost both sides of their byes this season. The Rams and Bucs played to the final second with the Rams surviving, and now Los Angeles hosts the 49ers, the only team that won as a two-time bye loser this past weekend. San Francisco downed the Packers, 13-10, in a game no one thought the 49ers would win until they did.
So, if I had listened to this study screaming at me this morning, I would have lost that one had I followed the don’t take a team that lost on opening day or lost both sides in the playoffs to win the Super Bowl. In fact, the 49ers were one of our two wins, but our two losses did conflict with the numbers yelling at me now?
That is the rub.
There are always some factors that favor that team or this team, and handicapping requires the ability to weigh all the available criteria and put it all in order of importance against the unique factors in play on a specific game.
So, we know this. In Super Bowl LVI we are going to have one team that won on opening day at home, the Chiefs downed the Cleveland Browns, 33-29, while the Bengals beat the Minnesota Vikings, 27-24, and didn’t lose both sides of their bye week against an NFC team that did lose going into and coming out of their regular season open date.
So, take the AFC team in the Super Bowl?
If only the Bills would have survived the lead they gained with 13 seconds left yesterday at Arrowhead Stadium, we could have had a 3-1 weekend and expected a Super Bowl that had both combatants looking to interrupt these two long standing factors.
And, next in importance, this damn research paper wouldn’t be able to chide me with these “I told you so” catcalls this morning.