I can’t recall ever being called a goat. But, if I had been on the playground in the 1960’s, I would not have thought it a compliment.
Today, a GOAT is something entirely different, something special, as it now refers to Greatest Of All Time.
Who’d a thunk that a goat would be an acknowledgement reserved for the very best at their craft? While a number of superior athletes may borrow the term from time to time, one player in the National Football League has laid claim to it without any serious challenge when the facts are debated.
Tom Brady is the GOAT.
He has won more Super Bowls than any franchise in league history. Nine times he guided the New England Patriots into the game, and six times he won it for team owner Robert Kraft. When Brady was selected by the Patriots in the sixth round of the 2000 draft and first met Kraft when reporting to Foxboro, Brady looked the Patriots owner in the eye and said, “Hi, I’m Tom Brady, and I’m the best decision this organization has ever made.”
Bold statement from a kid who had trouble earning a starting role during his college career at Michigan and was skipped over at least five times by every team in the league on draft day. But, as it turns out, he was right.
His success is unparalleled in league history, and if he had any doubters still holding out on acknowledging he is the GOAT, last year’s Super Bowl win in his first campaign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers erased any serious debate to the contrary.
His career in New England added up to first place finishes in every season after 2002. His starting role began in 2001 with his insertion after Drew Bledsoe was injured during a second week New England loss to the New York Jets. In that first year as the Patriots starting quarterback, the kid from California took over a team that lost their first two games while Bledsoe was starting and finished the season hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Upsetting the two-touchdown favored St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI.
In his 287 regular season starts with the Patriots, Brady compiled a record of 222-65. Even the odds makers couldn’t level his competence; his point spread mark in those same games was 170-109-8. That included 132 point spread triumphs in the 233 games in which he and his New England teammates were favored on the point spread.
With Brady behind center, one can easily understand why even a blindfolded person could go to the wagering window and plunk his bet down on Brady’s team no matter what the point spread.
Is there anything or any reason for a person to bet against Brady?
Well, yes.
While guiding his teams to ten Super Bowls and compiling a 29-8 postseason record, including last week’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles, Brady’s record as a favorite in conference playoffs games is below GOAT status. His record as a favorite in postseason games leading to the Super Bowl is 13-12, and his record as a point spread favorite in the Super Bowl is a losing 2-5.
Brady is 3-0 as an underdog in Super Bowl wins over the Rams, Seattle Seahawks and last year’s triumph with the Buccaneers over the Kansas City Chiefs. But as a favorite, he lost his first four Super Bowls against the point spread as a favorite against the Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles, and New York Giants twice. His first point spread cover as a favorite in a Super Bowl occurred five years ago in the game in which he brought New England back from a 28-3 second half deficit to beat the Atlanta Falcons in overtime … a game the Patriots had never led until their overtime touchdown provided the 34-28 triumph and point spread cover while laying three points.
What these stats allow us is the opportunity to remove the blindfold and consider all the factors for or against Brady in the playoffs. Last year, Brady lost to the spread in the only game in which his team was favored in the postseason, beating the Washington Football Team in a Wild Card game, 31-23, while favored by ten points.
Last week, Brady led his Bucs to a win and cover as a touchdown favorite over the visiting Philadelphia Eagles. While the score looked as if the Buccaneers dominated, they led 31-0 before two late touchdowns and a two-point conversion cut the final margin to 31-15, statistically the game was closer than the score. What the Eagles fell victim to was their inexperience with a first-year head coach and a quarterback making his maiden postseason start.
On Sunday, the Patriots are not facing a young developing team, but rather a Los Angeles Rams squad that is built to win now with a veteran quarterback making his fifth postseason start with the best team he has ever guided. Matthew Stafford led the Detroit Lions to three playoff games, all losses, and last Monday night was sharp in his first postseason start with the Rams. Los Angeles rolled to a win over the Arizona Cardinals, 34-11, in a contest even more lopsided than the Buccaneers home victory over the Eagles.
The Rams have mortgaged their future with the trading of multiple high draft choices to add veteran talent on both sides of the ball in 2021. Anything less than playing Super Bowl LVI in their home stadium will be a disappointment for Sean McVay and his talented group.
If Brady is ever to be had, it is in the postseason as a favorite.
Like this week.
Qoxhi Picks: Los Angeles Rams (+2½) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers