What many football fans consider the best weekend of National Football League action takes place this Saturday and Sunday when the league stages their Divisional Playoffs. Eight teams that have separated themselves from 24 other squads that have been eliminated from Super Bowl contention.
This week, the teams that earned the top seeds in each conference enter the fray. That is the National Football Conference Green Bay Packers and American Football Conference Tennessee Titans. Statistically, top seeds have a better than 50% chance of ending their campaign in a hail of confetti while collecting the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Since 1975, the NFL has determined home field advantage in the playoffs based on regular season records. In the first five seasons after the American Football League and NFL merged, the home field advantage in the playoffs was determined before the season began on a rotating basis.
In the 46 seasons that have been played with home field advantage reliant on season records, the top seed from one of the conferences has won the Super Bowl 25 times. Second seeds have garnered ten Super Bowl triumphs. The other ten winners have been split between two three seeds, five four seeds, and two each from the fifth and six seed positions.
From 1970 to 1977, only four teams from each conference advanced to the postseason; the winners of the three divisions and one Wild Card. A second wild card was added in 1978, which was also the first year that all three division winners earned a bye and the two Wild Card teams from each conference met to determine who advanced to the Divisional Round.
Beginning in 1990, the NFL expanded to allow three Wild Card teams to advance to the postseason, with the two division winners with the best records earning a bye week. In 2002, the league realigned with a fourth division in each conference and the playoffs involved the eight division winners and four Wild Cards. The two division winners with the best regular season records earned opening week byes.
In 2020, the NFL expanded the playoffs to have seven teams from each conference participate in the postseason with only one bye for the AFC and NFC teams with the best records. Last year, the top two seeds in each conference were the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers. Last season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers became only the second fifth seed to capture the Vince Lombardi Trophy while winning three NFC postseason games on the road against the Washington Football Team, New Orleans Saints and the top seed Green Bay Packers. They also downed the AFC top seed Chiefs in Super Bowl LV while becoming the first team to win the championship on their home field.
The Packers have something to prove given they missed a trip to the Super Bowl last year while Tom Brady outdueled Aaron Rodgers on the loser's home field. On Saturday night, Rodgers hosts the San Francisco 49ers, who he has never beaten in the playoffs in three prior attempts.
The Packers are favored to emerge from the NFC while entering the playoffs with home field advantage based on their number one seed, but the AFC top seed Titans are not the betting favorites in their conference. The second and third seed Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have shorter odds than the Titans to advance to Super Bowl LVI.
While the Titans may enter the playoffs with a Rodney Dangerfield attitude of getting no respect, it is expected that they will regain the services of their dynamic runningback, Derrick Henry. The prolific runner has missed eight weeks with an injury and the Titans offense has struggled without his explosiveness in their arsenal.
The Titans also get to meet a newcomer to the playoff field, the Cincinnati Bengals. They snapped a three decade slump of no postseason wins before last Saturday’s narrow victory over the visiting Las Vegas Raiders. The Titans may be getting no respect, and there is plenty of buzz around the tremendous year second-year quarterback Joe Burrow is having for the Bengals, but in the game of postseason action, the Titans are holding the winning hand.
Their experience and lack of overconfidence despite being the AFC number one seed is a perfect combination to end the enthusiasm for the team from the Queen City.
Qoxhi Picks: Tennessee Titans (-3) over Cincinnati Bengals