We know that the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans are among the worst teams in football … perhaps the very worst two. But what teams join them in a category of teams not good enough to take advantage of situations where most teams would succeed? Are the New York Giants a bottom team too?
On the other extreme, we know that the Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals are two teams good enough to overcome bad situations and point spreads to win and cover. The Los Angeles Rams are also a solid team and may also belong in this top group.
On Sunday, the Giants host the Rams. If New York is a bottom team they are going to have trouble staying within even the generous opening point spread on this game that had them posted as a double-digit underdog. That is, if the Rams are a top team.
The Rams only straight-up loss this season was to the undefeated Arizona Cardinals. Three of their four victories were gained by double-digits over the Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks. The game that throws shade on whether the Rams are good enough to cover a double-digit point spread on the road is their second week game against the Colts in Indianapolis.
In that game, the Rams were in a very tough spot as a road favorite following a 20 point home win over the Chicago Bears to open the era of Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles. The Colts had lost at home to Seattle on opening day with their new quarterback, Carson Wentz, who was still recovering from injuries suffered during the preseason.
The only way the Rams could cover a favorite role on the road against a middle team off a home loss would be if they were a top five squad. So, did they win?
Yes … and no.
They won the game, 27-24, but lost the point spread to the Colts while favored by four points.
This week, the Rams are coming off their important road win in Seattle a week ago Thursday and now have had time to rest and are still motivated in their division race while chasing the only undefeated team in the league. The Giants encounter is the first of three straight games the Rams play against teams near the bottom of the league. After the Giants contest, the Rams host the Detroit Lions in Los Angeles and meet the Houston Texans on the road.
If they were alone atop their division, the Rams would more likely have trouble motivating themselves for this trio of mismatches. But, will they be inspired to play breakaway football Sunday while chasing the Cardinals in the NFC West?
The public thinks so.
More than 73% of all wagers on this game backed the Rams giving the 10½ points on the spread. So, what did the line do? How much higher did it go?
It came down. Even while the public has long lines at the sports book waiting to get down on the Rams, the point spread on this game has been trimmed a point and one-half. The current posted number has Los Angeles a nine point road favorite.
The line shift indicates the “smart” money is taking the Giants with the points. The wise guys have been wrong on the Giants before, they backed them last week in Dallas too, and in that game the Cowboys rolled to a 44-20 triumph.
“Smart” money doesn’t always win, but it wins often enough that you don’t want the record going against it.
The second week point spread loss by Los Angeles in Indianapolis is the key to this week’s game. The Rams are good enough to keep the action in front of them and expect to come out with a victory and the Giants are not so bad that they won’t play their best coming off a trouncing on the road.
How good do the Rams have to be to cover the current nine point line? How bad do the Giants have to be to not cover this generous point spread at home?
Both better and worse than they have played so far this season.
Qoxhi Picks: New York Giants (+9) over Los Angeles Rams