Tonight, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills to complete the Week Five Sunday National Football League schedule. These two teams are getting used to playing each other, and the Bills are still looking for their first win against the Chiefs since Kansas City inserted Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback.
In 2020, these two NFL powerhouses met twice. Their first meeting was an October affair in Buffalo and Kansas City got the win, 26-17. Their second battle was in the AFC Championship Game, a contest won by the Chiefs, 38-24, a couple weeks before they were upset by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV.
If the Bills lost twice last year, what gives them reason to think they can reverse the result tonight?
First, the Bills met the Chiefs last season at the worst of all times, Kansas City had lost the prior week at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. The loss to the Raiders was the only meaningful loss Kansas City suffered last season until their Super Bowl defeat. Their only other regular season loss came in a meaningless last game of the season encounter with the Los Angeles Chargers after Kansas City had locked up home field advantage for the postseason.
While the Chiefs only lost two regular season games last year, their record against the point spread included no wins in the regular season after November 1. The Chiefs were consistently backed by the public and carried point spread liabilities that tripped them up week-after-week even though they were winning games straight-up.
In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs scored their only point spread win over the final 11 games they played in 2020.
So, at least the Bills get to visit Arrowhead Stadium this year with the Chiefs coming off a win. They beat the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field, 42-30.
If one was to only look at the results of these two teams, it would be hard to explain why the Chiefs are favored over the Bills tonight. Buffalo has run off three straight convincing wins since an opening day setback to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Buffalo’s margin of victory over the past three weeks has been 35, 22 and 40 points, with shutouts on each side of their 43-21 triumph over the Washington Redskins.
The Chiefs this year lost their first three point spread decisions while edging the Cleveland Browns on opening day and getting clipped the following two weeks by the Baltimore Ravens and Chargers. Last week’s win over the Eagles ended Mahomes’ only two game losing streak of his young career and posted the Chiefs first regular season point spread triumph since last November.
So, why can Buffalo consider themselves a solid choice to hand the Chiefs a third loss in four weeks?
Talent.
It has come to the point where the only debate about how good Buffalo is, is to determine if it is their defense or offense that is better. Both are great, and bouncing off a pair of losses last year to Mahomes and company make the Bills the perfect team to keep the Chiefs in the cellar in the AFC West Division.
But, before you bet on talent alone, know this, the Chiefs need this game more than the Bills. Buffalo is in a soft division, they have total control right now of the AFC East while competing against the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and New England Patriots, all teams with only one win through four weeks of the season.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are chasing the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders, all three teams only have one loss this season.
So, are the Bills good enough to bury the Chiefs on their home field and further solidify their hold on the AFC East?
The books don’t think so, the Bills are a 3 point underdog. On the other side, the public thinks the Bills talent will win here; they are backing the visiting team with 63% of all wagers taking the field goal on point spread.
As for me, I don’t like backing a team with less to play for, and don’t want to take a Chiefs team giving points against a superior Buffalo squad.
Great game, no edge for a wager.