When the Green Bay Packers met the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl II to complete the 1967 season we had very little history to work with in picking a winner. Still, it was easy, it was the Packers. It was all based on talent, and the still active American Football League lost the first Super Bowl decisively to Vince Lombardi’s Packers and there was little reason to think the same team wouldn’t win again.
The Packers did, covering a double-digit point spread with a 33-14 triumph over the Raiders.
So, what patterns did Green Bay establish for Super Bowls after just two games?
The better team wins. The better team covers the point spread. A defending champion wins again.
All three of those scenarios have come under fire in the 52 Super Bowls played since. First, the better team doesn’t always win. That was proven in Super Bowl III when the New York Jets upset the Baltimore Colts, and again the following year when the Kansas City Chiefs outscored the Minnesota Vikings. The better team didn’t win the first time Tom Brady won a Super Bowl either, that was when the two-touchdown favored St. Louis Rams were upset by the upstart New England Patriots.
The better team didn’t win in two other obvious situations when Eli Manning outdueled Brady twice. First ending the Patriots unbeaten string to complete the 2007 season, and again in 2011 when the New York Giants became the first and only team ever to win a Super Bowl while being outscored in the regular season.