The National Football League is concluding their regular season schedule this weekend with a pair of games on Saturday and 14 more contests on Sunday. There are no Thursday or Monday night games this week.
The defending AFC North Division Champion Cincinnati Bengals had a rough season this year. Two years ago, the Bengals rose from three consecutive years of last place finishes to win their division and roll through the playoffs all the way to a nail-biting close loss in Super Bowl LVI to the Los Angeles Rams, 23-20. They advanced to that game with a dramatic come-from-behind win over the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Last season, the Bengals won their second consecutive AFC North Division title and took the Chiefs, on the road again, to the wire before surrendering a three point loss.
With that as a backdrop for this season, you can understand why hopes were high in the Queen City for their Bengals to accomplish something they never have, win a Super Bowl. The Bengals have been to three, lost their first two to the San Francisco 49ers to complete the 1981 and 1988 seasons, along with their narrow defeat to the Rams two years ago.
This time, this year, it was all lined up for the Bengals to be special.
Until it wasn’t.
It started with an injury to the highest paid player in the league, quarterback Joe Burrow. With a calf injury, he sat out the preseason and then was still struggling with the calf and his lack of playing time when the regular season opened. Cincinnati got clobbered in their opening game against division opponent Cleveland, 24-3. Cincinnati had lost three of their first four games before downing the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks heading into their October 22nd bye week.
The early season bye worked perfectly for the Bengals. It gave time for Burrow to more fully recover from his calf injury and the team to regroup with a huge game coming up to open their post bye season against the highly regarded San Francisco 49ers. In San Francisco, the Bengals gave notice to the league that their early season woes were over and they were ready to defend their division title when they beat the 49ers by two touchdowns at Levi’s Stadium, 31-17.
The following week, they got another win over one of the best teams in the league, the Buffalo Bills. After a surprise setback to the fast-climbing Houston Texans, they were ready to get back in the thick of their division race when they visited the AFC North Division leading Baltimore Ravens. In the second quarter of that game, Burrow completed a touchdown pass that gave the visitors the lead, but after releasing the ball the Bengals prize quarterback winced in pain as he aggravated a wrist injury that required surgery and ended his season.
If Don Meredith was at the game and saw Burrow’s season end, he might have sprung into a chorus of “Turn out the lights, the party’s over.”
The jagged season that had so much promise before training camp was now nothing more than a longshot chance of earning a winning record. In their first game without Burrow, the Bengals turned to veteran backup Jake Browning to start at home against division rival Pittsburgh. The Steelers had set a record over their first ten games in being the first team to have a winning record, 6-4, that deep into a season while being outgained in total yards in all their contests.
That ended with their win in Cincinnati against the Bengals, they both outgained Zak Taylor’s team and beat them on their home field, 16-10.
This, I imagined at the time, is where a team in the Bengals position would pack it in and become easy fodder for opponents.
I was wrong.
As a double-digit underdog the following week in Jacksonville, Browning led Cincinnati to 34 points and an overtime win. Over the following two weeks, Browning seemed to indicate that the surge in Jacksonville was not a fluke as he put up 34 and 27 points in wins over the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings.
The Bengals had shown character in the face of losing their offensive leader. And Browning was now viewed as a worthy replacement to perhaps get the Bengals into the postseason field.
But, like so often is the case, once a backup is viewed as worthy he takes a dip. In Browning’s case, it was a blowout loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 34-11. Next on the Bengals schedule was a game in Kansas City against a team they had met the prior two years in the playoffs and split those decisions.
The Chiefs were in a tailspin, having lost three of their prior four games and in need of a win here to keep their playoff hopes in line. By my numbers, this was a perfect time for Patrick Mahomes and company to put the hammer down on the Bengals.
Everything appeared right, the line was set high enough to lure most bettors to the Bengals side of the wager and I recommended to Qoxhi clients to lay the seven points and take the Chiefs.
The Bengals defense only allowed the Chiefs offense one touchdown and was in a position to win the game until the final gun sounded. Fortunately, the Chiefs added six field goals to their one touchdown to tally 25 points and a point spread covering eight point win.
The Bengals, once again, had shown a resilience only present in championship caliber teams. Now, the loss at Arrowhead ended any playoff hopes for the Bengals, but it does leave them at home this week to exact a little revenge on this disappointing season. And they get to do it against the same team that started them off on the wrong foot with that 24-3 win in Cleveland on opening day.
This time, the game means nothing to the Browns, they are slotted as the fifth seed in the AFC win or lose this game. But for the Bengals, oh yeah, this means a lot. It is their last chance this year to put a positive stamp on this troublesome year. The books know it, that is why this point spread looks so out of whack. The Bengals are favored by a touchdown over a Browns team that beat them to open the season and are headed to the playoffs.
The Bengals are favored by this huge number for only one reason … they are going to win by more points than the spread which is designed to steer bettors to the Browns.
Qoxhi Picks: Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over Cleveland Browns