There is a reason that a miniscule number of weekend bettors make money over the course of a football season. Bettors have all sorts of rules that feed a book's profit margin. Attempts to make up for a series of bad bets with one big one is a huge mistake, even if it occasionally pays off. In the long run, that method will prove disastrous.
The books make money because they are never going for the kill on a big shot. They take consistent season long profit margins staying within their lines, knowing a game plan and never deviating from their method to collect long term gains.
They do nothing that doesn’t serve their needs. How they move the point spread is a key to their success. If ever you hear someone say that is just too many points, stop and consider why the books have the line set at that number? It’s not a mistake, and most often is designed to sway the bettor to the wrong side of the point spread proposition.
The line is a key to following the game.
In the National Football League, the injury report was developed to allow the average gambler an opportunity to know who is and isn’t available on Sunday. Before the injury report had to be revealed, wise guys with inside information on who was hurt and who was going to start had a huge advantage over the public. The books had to set lines to best balance public action, but those with inside information on injuries would take advantage of that number and the books were left holding the short straw.
The books don’t like losing, so they were instrumental with the league developing the injury report procedure. Yes, prior to their public persona until a couple years ago, the books and the NFL have always been in cahoots. They are partners in the business of football, and gambling is one of the reasons for the NFL success.
Consider this, an NFL preseason game gets more action than a Major League Baseball World Series game. You can’t really appreciate how amazing that is until I suggest that a baseball spring training game gets more action than the Super Bowl.
Of course that isn’t true, but it illustrates how much football rules the gambling world.
Now, NFL head coaches will often shade their injury reports to gain a competitive edge. They will claim that a quarterback is a game time decision, forcing an opponent to prepare for both the starter and a backup even though the coach knows whether the starter will or won’t play. The point spread will tip us off early on the availability of a key player.
The books have insights that are even more precise than the NFL injury reports and they don’t need to shade their information for competitive reasons. When they know, and they know, if a quarterback is or isn’t going to play that early certainty is reflected in the line.
If while a coach is saying his quarterback is a game day decision and he truly is, the books won’t post a spread on the game. They are not gambling. But, the moment they confirm he is or isn’t available they will post a line on the game and the number will clearly reflect whether or not the starting quarterback is or isn’t playing.
Say, for example, that Patrick Mahomes suffered an injury the prior week and Andy Reid was claiming he might or might not play against this week’s opponent, the Buffalo Bills. If the game was scheduled for Kansas City, the line for a game at Arrowhead Stadium between these two AFC powers might have the Chiefs favored by 3½ points with Mahomes starting.
If that were the opening number on the game, and then Mahomes’ availability came into question, the books would take the game off the board. Reid may contend right up to Sunday morning that Mahomes’ availability was in question, but the books posted a number on this game on Thursday afternoon that had the Chiefs favored by 4 points.
We know Mahomes is starting based on that line. If he wasn’t, the point spread would be shaved to a pick ‘em or close to that.
I watch the line all week long, and when the books take a game off the board I want to know why. Like everything the books do, it matters.
When we have a final week of the season with teams that are already assured a playoff berth often resting their starters the books can get caught needing to adjust lines as coaching decisions become known. When they aren’t sure how the coaching decisions are going to affect the game, they take the game down.
Today, three games were taken off the board, and I want to know why.
The Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders is off the board today, so is the Cleveland Browns game against the Bengals in Cincinnati. The third one we can’t bet on today is the Kansas City Chiefs at the Los Angeles Chargers. This game opened with the Chiefs a three point favorite, but with them clinching their division title last week the line shifted six points to where the Chargers were favored by three at home.
Now off the board?
Why?
The next two days will reveal why these three games came off the board, and the answer could illuminate a winning pick.