The National Football League kicks off their Saturday schedule today with three games beginning with a contest in Cincinnati where the Bengals will host the Minnesota Vikings at 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time. The afternoon and evening games find the Pittsburgh Steelers in Indianapolis to meet the Colts and the Denver Broncos in the Motor City to battle the Detroit Lions.
These are three intriguing games with six teams still hoping to land a postseason berth and needing a win today to enhance those prospects. Three good matchups for football fans, not so much from my perspective of looking for a point spread investment.
The Vikings and Bengals had come into this season with a lot higher hopes than their early season results produced. Both have lost their starting quarterbacks for the season, and both surged behind their backups. After a slow start, Kirk Cousins had the Vikings on a roll when he was injured in a contest seven weeks ago in Green Bay. The Vikings had no one on their roster that they felt was capable of continuing their drive towards the postseason, so they made a deal with the Arizona Cardinals to acquire Joshua Dobbs.
The veteran backup admitted he didn’t know the names of all the players in his huddle in his first game with the Vikings, but that didn’t prevent him from leading Minnesota to a win over the Atlanta Falcons on the road. Dobbs won a second straight game as the Vikings starter, 27-19, over the New Orleans Saints, before his magic ran out.
Losses before their bye week to the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears put the Vikings playoff plans on life-support, which were kept alive last week when they became one of the few teams in history to win a game while scoring only three points. Their 3-0 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders has the Vikings hopeful, but they are meeting a more complete Bengals squad today.
Cincinnati’s season seemed to ride on the health of their prize quarterback, Joe Burrow. When he was hobbled but played with a calf injury early in the season the Bengals struggled, losing three of their first four games. As his health improved, so did the Bengals record, as they won four of five contests headed into a key AFC North Division meeting with the Baltimore Ravens.
Injured while throwing a go-ahead touchdown in that game, Burrow required wrist surgery and is out for the season. Just when it appeared the Bengals would fold their tent for the year, the defending AFC South Division champions thrived behind the unexpected success of backup quarterback Jake Browning. Over the past two weeks, Browning has been impressive in leading the Bengals to wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts. With seven wins the Bengals are now among the teams listed as Wild Card possibilities.
My concern in this game is twofold, first, I think the Vikings run behind Dobbs has run its course and the success the Bengals enjoyed behind Browning is tempered with caution. Those factors leave me without confidence in either of these teams.
In the afternoon game, the Pittsburgh Steelers success appears to have hit a wall as they look to end a two game skid against the Colts. Everyone knew the Steelers early season success was somewhat an illusion, they won six of their first ten games without ever gaining more yards than their opponent in any of those games. No team had ever done that before.
Since an impressive road win at Cincinnati three weeks ago, the Steelers have allowed their postseason hopes to be dimmed with losses to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots.
If the Steelers couldn’t beat the Cardinals or Patriots on their home field, how can we expect them to score more points than the Colts in Indianapolis?
We can’t.
So, take the Colts?
No, they unfortunately are also in a spot where a win is unlikely.
Okay, how about the night game for a pick today?
This is the game I like the best, and it still doesn’t warrant a wager.
The Detroit Lions have been one of the most compelling stories of the 2023 season. Dan Campbell’s men have surged to the top of the NFC North Division beginning with a season opening victory over the defending Super Bowl Champions in Kansas City. Detroit’s nine wins this season has them both on top of the NFC North Division standings and with a shot at home field advantage in the playoffs.
But, their chances of a first week postseason bye was greatly reduced with last week’s loss to the Chicago Bears. In fact, the trajectory of the Lions is a far cry from the surging San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys in the National Conference. Two weeks ago, the Lions jumped to a 21 point first quarter lead in New Orleans, a clear sign they were geared to shake off their Thanksgiving loss to the Green Bay Packers.
Then, the Lions allowed the Saints back into the game and struggled down the stretch of that contest to come out with a five point win. Last week, they didn’t score in the second half in a two touchdown loss to the Bears at Soldier Field.
Uh-oh, the previously smooth running Lions are sputtering like a car running out of gas.
Now, in comes the Denver Broncos, who have shown life the second half of this season during Sean Payton’s first year directing the action in the Mile High City. What we have here is a Denver team getting better and a Detroit squad showing the signs of a young team struggling to add success on top of success.
And still, I like the Lions in this game … but not enough to bet on their prospects.
The NFL offers three games today, while I’ll take a Saturday bye.