Here is something I never thought the San Francisco 49ers would have to confront this season; ending a two game losing streak.
The 49ers opened the season with five straight wins that had the Brock Purdy led offense scoring at least 30 points in every victory. Then, the NFC West Division leaders set out on a two game road trip that undid their hot start.
A loss in Cleveland to the Browns would have been averted had rookie place kicker Jake Moody converted a 41-yard field goal attempt on the game’s last play. The miss allowed the Browns to score an upset home victory, 19-17. Last Monday night, the 49ers rookie kicker missed another field goal and uncharacteristically Purdy ended the 49ers last two drives with interceptions that left the Minnesota Vikings with an improbable five point win, 22-17.
Now, before 49ers fans hit the panic button, know this, the loss in Minnesota included a decision by San Francisco Head Coach Kyle Shanahan that may pay dividends for years to come. After missing the kick that would have provided a win in Cleveland, and then having another kick sail wide right in his first attempt in Minnesota from 40-yards out, could have had debilitating effects for the first-year kicker out of Michigan.
Kickers require both physical and mental states to achieve success. If a kicker loses confidence on game day, even while he can drill them from 60 yards at Wednesday’s practice, he can suffer from the same problems that forced the greatest gymnast in history, Simone Biles, to pull out of Olympic competition when she recognized her confidence went awry. I can offer a personal experience of the “yipes”. If I line up a putt for a birdie my chances of making the shot are a lot less likely to succeed than if I have the same putt for a bogey. I have an inner conversation that I can shoot a bogey but a birdie is outside my confidence range.
Moody missed the kick in Cleveland from 41-yards out, then misfired on his next attempt from a yard closer. He was a kick away from perhaps becoming a full head case, but Head Coach Shanahan didn’t allow his kicker to doubt himself by showing confidence in his rookie. Early in the fourth quarter with the 49ers trailing by eight points, San Francisco faced a fourth and six situation from the Vikings 37 yard line.
I thought, maybe you did too, that the Niners had a better chance of converting on 4th-and-six than Moody making a 55-yard field goal. But Shanahan sent Moody onto the field to attempt a kick 15 yards longer than the one he had missed earlier in the game.
Boom, Moody is successful on the three-pointer and Shanahan shows once again why he is the head coach of a National Football League team and I’m sitting in my office pouring over numbers. It was brilliant, had Moody missed the kick the stigma would still have carried to the next game on his sudden ineffectiveness, even though 55 yards would have been viewed as a miss with distance a huge factor.
But to have him make it, for Moody to know his coach believes in him, could add years to his successful career.
For most of this week the 49ers figured that they would be without their brilliant young quarterback, as Purdy was in concussion protocol following a hit in which he earned San Francisco a first down in Minnesota. On Friday, Shanahan indicated that Purdy would be the likely starter.
Here is the rub.
Without Purdy and on a two game losing streak the 49ers were a perfect motivational spot to beat the shaved point spread with Sam Darnold running the offense. The line had opened with the 49ers a six point favorite, but on word that Purdy would probably miss this week’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals, the line was cut to a 3½ point home favorite role. By my calculations, the need to overcome the loss of Purdy actually enhanced the 49ers chances of a win from a motivational perspective. Now, if he does indeed play, the 49ers lose that edge and the line grows back closer to the opening number.
That reduces the huge motivational edge for San Francisco while still leaving the 49ers with the better talent and a clear focus on ending their two game losing streak.
That’s probably enough when you consider the Bengals still don’t have an imposing offensive line and the 49ers defensive front has not asserted itself during their two game losing streak. It is that unit, the 49ers pass rush specifically, that I think will turn the tide in this west coast battle and return San Francisco to the win column.
Qoxhi Picks: San Francisco 49ers (-4½) over Cincinnati Bengals