NFL 2025 Season - Week 17
Picksfootball
 

Headline Play

Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
SEASON:

Article Archive

Week 17
Complicated Conclusion
Three for Christmas
Topped Out
Right Again
Week 16
First of Three
Surprises
December Battles
New York, New York
Two for Two
Unlocked
With the Book
Medicine Cabinet
Last Call
Week 15
Home Heat
Different Objectives
Top Underdogs
Who Know What
Wrong is Right
Need and Focus
Pair of Strugglers
Friends and Foes
Sour Bite
Week 14
Time Spent
Weather Factor
With Insurance
Like Locusts
Mischievous Grin
As Good as it Gets
On a Roll
Head Hunting
Week 13
Left the Station
By Design
Looking Ahead
Here It Comes
Offense versus Defense
In Your Dreams
Oh for Three
Thanksgiving Trifecta
Just Visiting
Week 12
First in Sight
Pair of Leaders
Bears on Top
Same Old, Same Old
Exposure Reduced
History Lesson
Juggling Act
Bounce Back Big
Fade to Black
Week 11
Highs and Lows
Finally They Meet
Battle for First Place
Mission From God
Business as Usual
Under Play
Unfinished Business
Second Half Sprint
Hope for the Future
Week 10
Pack Tonight
Two Sides
NFC West War
Points Count
White Flag
Blind Spot
Seems Easy
Call Waiting
Return Meeting
Week 9
Defense Still Matters
Good Again
Returning Quarterbacks
Not So Bad
Blowouts Rule
Dolphins Dipping
Score This
Missing Score
Week 8
Expectations Leveled
Grudge Match
NFL and Gambling World Cry Foul
High Seas
Race to Five
Struggling Playoff Teams
Argue This
DeMeco Team Due
Week 7
Weighing Wins
Addition by Subtraction
Sharp or Not
Spark the Fuse
Hocus Pocus
Boarding the Jets
Cushion Crunch
Hot Meet Stout
Pedestal Perch
Week 6
Tightening Races
Arrowhead or Hammer
Missing Signal Callers
Little Boys
Special Circumstances
Then and Now
Old Versus New
Dolphins to Titans
Week 5
More to Know
Dominance in Streaks
Two Back is Hot
Spike Side
41 is Up
Bounce Back
Deal with the Devil
Cool Your Jets
Sleep Walking
Week 4
Backup to Win
Cold and Hot
Not So Obvious
Early Start
Yes We Can
New Clues
Up is Down
Dooms Night
Dead Center
Week 3
That's Entertainment
Road Trip
Perfect and Imperfect
About Time
Better Bet
Quarterback Resurgence
Cruise Control
Look of a Champion
Sitting Duck
Week 2
No Respect
QB Rivalry
Inches Short
Kidding Aside
Coaching Advantage
Turf Toe Spike
Prime Opener
Solo Act
Early Returns
Week 1
NFC North Battle
Everybody is Right
Assumptions
Happy Ending
QB Swap
Beginning of the End
Too Easy
Road Cowboys
Choose Wisely
Schedule It
Season Win Totals
Super Bowl Pick
Credit Collision
Burn in Hell
Before Relevance
No Repeats
Home and Auto
So Close
Preseason 3
Cheshire Cat Grin
Reverse Records
Clear Choice
Moving Parts
Not Ready for Prime Time
Preseason 2
Success and Failure
Jury Out
Real Competition
Quarterback Rich
Worst to First
Time to Reload
Sweet Spot
Preseason Magic
Preseason 1
Two Up, Two Down
Book Bet
Gone Fishing
Smart Rats
Early Value
Streaky
Hall of Fame
Two Good Ones
Ups and Downs
Offseason
Cause and Effect
Looking Forward
Purdy Value
Business for Profits
     
 
After the Game
by Dennis Ranahan

The Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers open the eighth week of National Football League regular season action tonight with a game from Highmark Stadium. The weather in Buffalo, which can begin to become a factor this time of the year, is downright pleasant. Temperatures are in the mid-sixties and there is only a slight chance of precipitation.

While the weather is pleasant in Buffalo, the team and the Bills fans are getting a bit cranky.

This season, Josh Allen and company have outscored their opponents over the first seven weeks by 80 points. No team in the American Football Conference and only the San Francisco 49ers in the entire league have a better points for and points against number. Problem is, for the Bills, their 80 point bulge over opponents has only equated to four wins in seven games and second place, behind the Dolphins, in the AFC East Division.

So, what’s wrong with the Bills?

Well, a number of things that appeared pitched in favor of Buffalo have instead knocked them out of the box. It began in the opening Monday Night Football game of the season, a contest in which the Bills led the New York Jets by ten points headed to the halftime locker room and New York had lost their quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, on the game’s opening series of downs.

This would be a night when a quote from David Letterman about the Bills after they blew a halftime lead over the Dallas Cowboys in one of their four Super Bowl losses was appropriate, “Hey, save some of that champagne for after the game.”

The Bills allowed their advantage over the hobbled Jets to land them in the doghouse after an overtime loss. As you might imagine, Buffalo took out their aggressions the following Sunday in their home opener, beating the Las Vegas Raiders, 38-10. Their prowess was on full display the following two Sundays when they hammered the Washington Commanders at FedExField, 37-3, and then blew by the Miami Dolphins while handing Mike McDaniel’s team his first loss of the season, 48-20.

So, there you have it. Buffalo is a juggernaut and the upset loss to the Jets was just a case of them taking for granted a win that got away.

Think again.

After their three straight lopsided wins, Buffalo lost in London to the Jacksonville Jaguars and then had a heck of a time beating the other New York team, requiring a comeback to edge the talent challenged Giants, 14-9. Okay, was the word in Buffalo, at least they got the win and now they get to play a New England team that appears as bad in 2023 as they were good for all those years behind Tom Brady.

The Patriots only win this season was a narrow victory over the Jets, and they had lost their previous three games before last week’s meeting with the Bills by a combined 20-93 deficit. This promised to be a nice trip to Massachusetts for the Bills and an easy win.

Nope.

It was another, their third, defeat of the season. The leaves were not the only thing turning last week in Boston, the Bills were changing colors to a loser following a stinging defeat, 29-25.

Okay, but tonight they win easy … right?

Well, it would appear that is in the cards, but with the Bills the idea of jumping on a train everyone thinks is headed to a double digit win just doesn’t strike a confident prospect. The Bills opened as an 8½ point favorite, and the line quickly dropped to 7½ points in the first hour it was posted. Since then, the line has climbed and currently sits with the Bills a 9½ point home favorite over the Buccaneers.

I know the heavy public action on Sean McDermott’s team is the reason the line has gone up on this game, but who moved that number down when it was first posted?

If they are right, and I know it wasn’t the public initially causing that line drop, then the Bills don’t cover this line tonight. It doesn’t matter what I think, it matters that all factors point one way.

Tonight, they don’t.