As if they needed any additional breaks this season, the San Francisco 49ers will now “get” to play the Cleveland Browns while the home team will be without their starting quarterback. Deshaun Watson has been ruled out of the 49ers/Browns matchup and replaced by backup P.J. Walker.
In this game, the 49ers were installed as a three point road favorite following their blowout win over the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday night. Before most of the books even posted the line, the spread had moved up to San Francisco favored by four points and by Monday night the Niners were favored by 4½ points, and the spread continued to rise each day like the temperature in Flagstaff in August.
When the availability of Watson was in doubt, the line rose to six on Tuesday, 6½ on Wednesday and seven Thursday morning. Now, with Watson clearly out of this contest, the line has jumped to double-digits with the 5-0 49ers now 10 point favorites at Cleveland Browns Stadium.
On Tuesday, I had written a Headline Play siding with the home team plus the points. But, of course, I thought the two weeks off for the Browns, they had their bye last weekend, would allow Watson time to heal from his shoulder injury.
It has not.
So, take the 49ers while laying the points and laugh all the way to the bank?
Not necessarily.
The selection against the 49ers this week, the first time this season we have not been with San Francisco, was not primarily based on talent, but more importantly on motivation. The 49ers five wins, which began with a blowout victory in Pittsburgh on opening day, appears on our charts to have hit a crescendo with their 42-10 trouncing of Dallas last Sunday. On the other side of that blowout win, the 49ers were in a horrible motivational spot against a Cleveland team coming off a home loss with two weeks to prepare for this week’s battle.
Before we conclude this thought, know that motivation over the first month of the 2023 season has taken a backseat to pure talent. One of the stats we use in picking our games is to identify where the public money is landing and score that action as a motivational edge for the team they are betting against. This year, the top three public plays through the first five weeks of the season are 13-2 straight-up and 10-5 versus the point spread.
Not a likely stat based on history.
But, a confidence building series of results that have the public jumping in with more and more confidence on their favorite teams, which includes along with the 49ers the Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.
The books, who I consider the smartest group in this game, now have an advantage over the “winning” public by adding points to underdogs and shifting the advantages away from the previously successful public plays. This week, in addition to the 49ers line jumping based both on the 49ers talent and the Cleveland injuries, the Dolphins opening line for their game against the Carolina Panthers has moved from 10½ points to 13½ points, the Bills spread opened at 12½ and has moved up to 14½, and the Kansas City Chiefs kicked up a half-point for their game last night against the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs still covered, by a half point, winning the game 19-8 while giving 10½ points.
The bookmakers are masters at pulling the rug out from perceived public advantages. They are banking on the public continuing to wager on yesterday’s winners, while shifting advantages to underdogs benefiting from bloated lines.
Okay, the 49ers move is clearly warranted. No team has played better over the first five weeks of the season than Kyle Shanahan’s men, and the Browns have lost their two most potent offensive weapons. In addition to having Watson sidelined this week, they have lost their dynamic runningback, Nick Chubb, to a season ending injury.
So, once again, what we have here is in all likelihood the 49ers numbers coming in tomorrow night as the most-bet team of the week, and the public is not dissuaded by a point spread that has swelled like a bee bite on someone with an allergic reaction.
But, if motivation plays a role, and trust me, it does, then the loss of key players for Cleveland only enhances that primary motivator; fear of failure. The 49ers come in confident, and the Browns are prepared to defend their home.
Watson is out, but the factors I identify as paramount to success are amplified.
Qoxhi Picks: Cleveland Browns (+10) over San Francisco 49ers