The stories and stats available on the Qoxhi Picks site are for entertainment until gameday, then selections that earn a money management number shift our work to all business.
Our feature stories and Headline Plays offer insights into what we see at the time, but our work on the games continues until they are released on Sunday morning. Sometimes selections are adjusted in response to an injury or weather conditions that weren’t known when the articles were written days before the games were played.
The work we do at Qoxhi also uncovers information that lend credence to one side or the other when numbers from wagering patterns are balanced against line moves. I am always intrigued when the public is vested heavily on one side, and the line is moving in the opposite direction. For example, last Tuesday we wrote an early week story picking the Tennessee Titans getting a point-and-one-half over the visiting Cincinnati Bengals.
Our early information seemed conclusive. The Titans were riding an eight game point spread winning streak and at home against a Bengals squad that had upset them in last year’s playoffs. With that as a backdrop to the game, I was surprised that Mike Vrabel’s team was getting points on the spread.
More surprised when the line didn’t come down while a high majority, more than 65%, of the wagers made by the public were agreeing with me that the Titans were the right side of this play.
When the line kicked up on the Bengals, by midweek Cincinnati was a 2½ point favorite despite the public still heavily invested in the Titans, I knew that I was siding with the public over “smart” money. Not a good place to be. Still, I didn’t understand the move, so I took a deeper dive into the game and discovered something I had missed.
While the history between these two teams, and the recent upset postseason win by the Bengals, seemed to favor the Titans in this game, another factor was revealed in looking at this contest from the other side. I knew I must have missed something in this matchup to have the books moving the line against public action and I found it on Saturday. While the Bengals were not in a good position to win, the Titans were in a horrible spot to win again.
It was Tennessee’s season flow that pointed directly to a loss for the home team in this one, and the Bengals didn’t have to do anything special to get the win. I was not enticed to shift sides, take Cincinnati that is, but I knew that this game was one that bent the Bengals way without the need to have a vested interest in the outcome.
The game played close, but like most often happens, public money lost and the “smart” money won with Cincinnati earning a hard fought victory, 20-16.
While the earning potential of that game is exhausted, the information we can gain from that contest can pay dividends this week when the Bengals host the Kansas City Chiefs. Because the Bengals won last week in Tennessee, their stock is up this week when they meet Andy Reid’s team in the Queen City.
The books installed Cincinnati as an inviting home underdog on the point spread, but with knowledge that the Bengals victory last week was much more attributable to the Titans losing than the Bengals winning, gives us a unique edge to apply this Sunday.
Last season, the Bengals beat Patrick Mahomes and company twice in January. First, late in the regular season while the Bengals were in need of a win to earn a playoff berth and the Chiefs only battle was a quest for the top seed. Cincinnati took advantage of that situation with a come-from-behind 34-31 win.
The AFC Championship Game was similar in that the Bengals had the motivational edge based on the Chiefs dramatic win the prior week against the Buffalo Bills, and the Chiefs the talent advantage. Once again, it was the motivation that carried the day as the Bengals recovered from a double-digit first half deficit to earn a trip to Super Bowl LVI with a dramatic 27-24 triumph.
Twice in the matter of four weeks, the Chiefs had given up leads and lost to the Bengals, first costing them the top seed in the AFC Playoffs and secondly a trip to the Super Bowl.
This week, with that as the prelude to this Sunday’s contest between these two AFC powers, the Chiefs have both the motivation and talent, while the Bengals have a couple points on the spread.
It won’t be enough while the Chiefs get the win in a double-revenge spot.
Qoxhi Picks: Kansas City Chiefs (-2) over Cincinnati Bengals