Headline Play Guest: Running on Empty

Running on Empty

by Dennis Ranahan

Have you ever been driving on the open road and even though your gas gauge indicates you are low on fuel you drive past one service station with hopes you can make it to another farther up the road?

The Cleveland Browns football team is doing something akin to that this season.

It started last May, when they sent three first round draft picks to the Houston Texans for exiled quarterback Deshaun Watson. In much the same way the Los Angeles Rams traded away their future by bringing in quarterback Matthew Stafford for success now before the start of the 2021 season, and then cashed that decision with a Super Bowl LVI victory, the Browns looked to accomplish the same goal.

The difference between the two deals was that Stafford wasn’t facing any legal problems and an almost certain suspension before he was available to play. Watson was, and when the league imposed an 11 game suspension on the recent Cleveland acquisition the Browns checked their gauges and hoped they could get through the first half of the season still in position to vie for a playoff berth when Watson was eligible to play.

So far, the results are mixed.

The Browns have one of the best rushing attacks in the game, and a defense stocked with quality athletes acquired through high draft choices based on abysmal records the team compiled for most of this century. In one two year period, 2016 and 2017, Cleveland won one game in 32 regular season decisions.

The decision to stake their future on Watson also prompted the team to jettison the quarterback they chose with the first overall selection in the 2018 draft, Baker Mayfield, to the Carolina Panthers. That move was made to clear the path for Watson to move into the starting role without any quarterback controversy.

That is all well and good, but it does put the Browns on an 11 game quest to stay in contention in the AFC North Division race before filling up their offense with the insertion of Watson. The player scheduled to be behind center for Cleveland for their first 11 games this season is Jacoby Brissett. The seven year veteran was selected in the third round of the 2016 draft by the New England Patriots. A year later, he was shipped to Indianapolis where twice in his four seasons with the Colts he was their starting quarterback.

Last year, he was a member of the team he goes up against this Sunday, the Miami Dolphins. He made five starts for the Dolphins last season and has made 45 NFL career starts with a won/loss record of 17 wins and 28 losses. This season, while he nudges the Browns to the time when Watson moves into the starting role, he has won three of his eight starts.

That 3-5 record has the Browns currently 2½ games behind the AFC North Division leading Baltimore Ravens. With only six games left in the regular season when Watson becomes available, the Browns can’t afford to fall any further behind in their race to have Watson’s insertion meaningful in 2022.

The Dolphins success this year is keyed by their young quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa. The third year signal caller was the Dolphins first round draft choice in 2020 and has won every game he has started and finished this season. But, an injury knocked him out of a contest against the Cincinnati Bengals that the Dolphins went on to lose and during his absence Miami lost games to the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings.

Those three defeats leave the Dolphins one-half game behind the Buffalo Bills in the highly competitive AFC East Division race.

What that produces on Sunday is a pair of teams needing a win, but the Browns more desperate for a victory in their attempt to stay competitive in their division race while heading for the day when Watson takes over their quarterback role.

The combination of desperation and points is an edge worth taking.

Qoxhi Picks: Cleveland Browns (+3½) over Miami Dolphins

Unwise

by Dennis Ranahan

I respect the elements the wise guys are seeing to lead them to back the New England Patriots tonight when they battle the Buffalo Bills to kickoff the 13the week of National Football League action.

This is a game between two division opponents with the team in first place two games ahead of their home underdog opponent.

Advantage home underdog.

The Buffalo Bills are now playing their third straight road game after having a scheduled home date shifted to Detroit to avoid the record snowfall in Buffalo. In that game, the Bills won in unconvincing fashion while covering the line by the score of 31-23. The Bills were favored by 7½ points in their win over the Cleveland Browns. Last week, on Thanksgiving, they battled the Detroit Lions yard-for-yard, point-for-point, before escaping the holiday with a three point win, 28-25.

Not high credentials for a team that was favored by 9½ points in Detroit and opened as a six point favorite in this AFC Division tilt against Bill Belichick’s squad.

Reasoning can deduce that if the Bills had trouble winning against Detroit on the road, they are likely to have more trouble trying to beat the Patriots by more points a road game later.

This is a rare Thursday night game where both teams come in following a full week between contests. Both the Bills and Patriots played on Thanksgiving, the Bills with their victory in Detroit and the Patriots losing to the Vikings in Minnesota.

While respecting the preponderance of evidence that the wise guys follow to come up with the Patriots (+3½) being the side tonight, I beg to differ on a more important criteria; the unique factors that feed this game.

When a first place team is meeting a team two games back in their standings, they are often playing their primary competition. But, the Bills are not playing their primary competition tonight, that comes from the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, who both have better records than the Patriots while all four AFC East teams currently have more wins than losses.

The only reason the Patriots are considered in this division race at all is because they beat the Jets twice, 22-17 in October and 10-3 last month. Beating the Jets to remain in the race is a lot less difficult than beating the best team in the division while trying to knock them out of the top spot.

The Bills have had seven days to prepare for this game with the knowledge that their effort against Detroit would not be enough to beat the Patriots tonight. That puts the better team on full alert.

The better team knowing it has to play better while locked in a tight division race against quality teams is the perfect spot for the Bills to bounce off a narrow win over the Lions with a lopsided triumph against the Patriots.

Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (-3½) over New England Patriots

Not Our Money

by Dennis Ranahan

I’ve got a couple great reasons to bet on tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup when the Indianapolis Colts entertain the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Only problem is, one of the great reasons is on one side, and the other great reason is on the other team. So, we can have a great point spread proposition on the Colts laying less than three points at home against a team they grade out better against or a team that owns a significant motivational edge in the Steelers.

It can also be ascertained by their recent play that the Colts are having fun playing for their recently named head coach, Jeff Saturday. The one time star on the Colts offensive line is now at the center of attention as the Colts midseason replacement for another popular with the players head coach, Frank Reich.

The first thing Saturday did when he took over a few weeks ago was reinstall Matt Ryan as the Colts starting quarterback. A totally anemic Indianapolis offense while under the direction of second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger, which was a last ditch effort by Reich to give his team a chance while his offensive line wasn’t good enough to protect a stationary Ryan.

In other words, for Reich, plan A didn’t work and neither did Plan B, and it cost him his job. Saturday was a controversial hire, a man who had twice turned down opportunities to join the Colts coaching staff as an assistant, was suddenly the head guy.

How would this work out?

While I wouldn’t bet on Saturday ever hoisting a trophy won on Super Sunday while head coach, the ability to align a roster currently more talented than tonight’s opponent is within his grasp. Since his hiring three weeks ago, the team responded with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Saturday’s first game and a staunch challenge for the Philadelphia Eagles last week, a contest won by Philadelphia, 17-16.

Then bet on the Colts tonight?

Not a chance.

The Steelers have a head coach that is likely going to suffer his first losing season ever in Mike Tomlin. The man brings a sincere intensity to his role that inspires his team’s to their best efforts, and you can be sure that this group will do all they can to avoid handing Tomlin his first losing campaign in his 16 seasons as the Steelers head coach.

What these two teams have in common is that they both have proud traditions and are most often included when the playoff field is dealt. This year, both are unlikely participants in the postseason, and with a loss tonight, either of them could move precariously close to mathematically eliminated.

Which team has got the guile to get the win tonight?

The Steelers have our nod, but not our money.

Night Off

by Dennis Ranahan

The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles meet tonight in a game that before the season began you would think the season results were opposite. The Packers came into this season one of the favorites to represent the National Football Conference in Super Bowl LVII. In actuality, it is the Eagles who have the best record in the NFC and the Packers trail the Minnesota Vikings by four games with as much chance of earning a postseason slot as you or I.

The Eagles come into tonight’s action with the best record in football, nine wins against a single loss. But, it can be deduced that the Eagles are done dominating opponents based on losing their last three games against the point spread to the Houston Texans, Washington Commanders and Indianapolis Colts.

The Packers, on the other hand, are as reliable this year as an old car with a weak battery on a cold winter morning.

Green Bay has lost six of their last seven games and their offense, once the pride of Aaron Rodgers, is sputtering as much as a car running two cylinders short.

Now, the NFL is not like a dance, where you leave with the girl you brought.

In the NFL, teams that often dominated the first half of a season have trouble covering point spreads from the midpoint on. Put the Eagles in that category.

Now, there is no way we want to back a Green Bay team with only a shadow of their past effectiveness, but to back the Eagles giving six points to Aaron Rodgers is to jump on a bandwagon a bit late.

Don’t want the Eagles, not willing to back the Packers.

What does that leave us with tonight … a night off.

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