Two teams under the direction of first year head coaches, the Las Vegas Raiders and Minnesota Vikings, meet tonight in Sin City to complete the first full weekend of National Football League preseason play.
Both teams have proud traditions.
The Vikings participated in four of the first 11 Super Bowls played, but unfortunately for them lost all four of those games including their last Super Bowl berth which was a loss to the Raiders to conclude the 1976 season. That game represented the second Super Bowl appearance by the Raiders and the only time John Madden guided Oakland to the Roman Numeral game. Oakland also participated in Super Bowl II, a loss to Vince Lombardi and his Green Bay Packers.
While the Vikings have not returned to the Super Bowl since their loss 45 years ago, the Raiders have appeared in three; downing the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins to complete the 1980 and 1983 seasons respectively and losing Super Bowl XXXVII to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
So, combined, the Vikings and Raiders have appeared in nine Super Bowls … do either of them have a chance to meet this coming February at State Farm Stadium when the league stages Super Bowl LVII in Arizona?
Yes.
Will they?
I think not.
First is the factor that both teams are being directed by first year head coaches. Has a team ever won a Super Bowl with a first year head coach?
Yes … twice.
Don McCafferty guided the Baltimore Colts to a win over the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl V in his first season, and in the 1989 season George Seifert was serving his first year as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers when they downed the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XXIV.
If two have won in their first year as head coach with their team, why do I eliminate both Josh McDaniels and Kevin O’Connell based on their tenure before the 2022 season starts?
Because, McCafferty and Seifert won while taking over teams in their prime after serving on the staff for legendary head coaches that chose to part ways with their teams. McDaniels and O’Connell are taking over for a pair of coaches that were fired while the two that won the Super Bowls in their first year were moving up because Bill Walsh retired and Don Shula left Baltimore to accept the head coaching position with the Miami Dolphins.
The table was set for the Colts in 1970 and the 49ers in 1989 for their first year mentors, McDaniels and O’Connell join teams with a lot of improvement necessary before being elevated to serious Super Bowl threats.
Current odds show the Raiders are a 21 to 1 proposition to take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy this season, the Vikings odds are a bit longer at 29 to 1. That is not to say those odds are as prohibitive as the bottom half of the league which show numbers listing the perceived worst teams with odds as high as a 100 to 1.
The first step to winning a Super Bowl is making the playoffs. The Raiders are playing out of the toughest division in football, the AFC West, which is home to the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. All three of those teams have odds lower than the Raiders 21 to 1. The Chiefs 8 to 1 odds are second in the AFC only to the Buffalo Bills who are currently posted at 5 to 1. The Chargers are currently posted at 10 to 1 and the Broncos odds of winning the Super Bowl are 16-1. If the odds are right, the Raiders will not only have trouble winning their division but also earning a postseason slot as a Wild Card entrant.
The Vikings play out of the NFC Central Division, which pits them against one of the teams among the favorites to win Super Bowl LVII, the Green Bay Packers. The other two NFC Central teams, the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions, look to improve this season but are both among the group of cellar dwellers who are posted with 100 to 1 Super Bowl odds..
Okay, we don’t expect this to be the year for either the Raiders or Vikings, but how about today when they meet in this preseason clash?
The Vikings expected regular season starting quarterback, Kirk Cousins, did not travel to Las Vegas with the team because of experiencing another positive Covid-19 test. The antivaxer gives way to backups to run the Minnesota offense. Sean Mannion is expected to start with Kellen Mond second in the rotation.
The Raiders, who are playing their second preseason game after winning the Hall of Fame game last week, are expected to have starter Derek Carr see his first summer game action. Probably no more than a series or two before he gives way to backups Jarrett Stidham and Nick Mullins.
The loss of Cousins for this game saw the point spread in this contest tick up a half point with Las Vegas currently a 4½ point favorite. It may well swell to five points before tonight’s kickoff.
While the basic indicators point to a Raiders win and probable cover, my concern in the preseason is to overreact to a missing starting quarterback. In most cases, they would see very little action even if available, which means a point spread move in response to their absence is most often a bad move for those backing the favorite.
The Vikings have a healthy quarterback competition for backup to Cousins which may well prove that Minnesota has the more effective signal caller on the field in the fourth quarter when this point spread decision could well be decided.