Any business thrives on innovation and advancement.
In my business, picking National Football League winners, what information to adopt and what data is simply something to argue over needs to be determined. Everybody has an opinion on why this team or that team is going to win, pressed, probably a side on every game on the board.
Some people stop there. Thinking that intuition is much better than exhaustive and sometimes confusing research.
In my experience, more data can sometimes cloud reality, but I’ll take it over someone telling me they like a team for a reason they can’t put in words or justify with numbers.
Then there is Kevin and Paul. My son and nephew. Two people that have demonstrated a determination to find an edge that is based on logic and supported by numbers. In the past few weeks, Paul has revealed a method he has been working on that employs a mathematical formula used in other applications with a new criteria he discovered to further enhance the results.
In our Saturday night meetings, over the past three weeks he has revealed what games his method identifies and some, most importantly, are in direct conflict to what my established criteria would identify. Last week, for instance, he had the Dallas Cowboys over the Washington Redskins. When we left our meeting on Saturday night, the Cowboys were 4½ point favorites, and his pick was in opposition to my choice based on motivational factors that favored the home standing Washington Football Team.
On Sunday morning, the wise guys had checked in on Paul’s side and the line jumped to 6½ points. I wasn’t sure what they saw, but I knew this, going against both Paul and the wise guys was not a formula that was going to consistently build a client’s account balance. What was important here was that Paul had it first, and his criteria to tear into some of my sides with motivation is a perfect complement to improve our bottom line results.
I didn’t, and wouldn’t, jump to the Cowboys side when I had so much on the Washington balance sheet motivationally. Dallas won the game, by seven, and clipped the 6½ point line.
The conflict between my stuff and Paul’s advancement kept us off a loser. We have another conflict coming up this Sunday when the Indianapolis Colts are slight favorites over the New England Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium.
My factors clearly point to the Colts, and the opening number of Indianapolis favored by two points has already been bumped up a half point. I see the Colts, in need of a win, at home off a bye week against a New England squad also off a bye week following their monumental victory on Monday night two weeks ago in Buffalo over the Bills.
This screams Colts to me.
Not Paul.
His latest iteration in developing the best method to isolate point spread winners comes up with New England.
I’ve got a few days before these two teams square off on Saturday, and I’m interested in Paul presenting more of his figures that could sway me off the Colts but never land me on the Patriots.
So, you get two plays here and neither yet can carry a Qoxhi designation.
Paul likes the Patriots plus 2½ points, I like Indianapolis.