I overheard a fan wearing a Tom Brady jersey predict this season’s Super Bowl with these words, “In his second year Brady upset the Rams in the Super Bowl as a big underdog. So I think Maye is going to do the same thing to the Seahawks this year.”

I couldn’t think of a less reliable reason to take the Patriots in Super Bowl LX. Other than Drake Maye and Brady being in their second seasons as quarterbacks in the National Football League, there is little reason to consider Super Bowl XXXVI and LX parallels.

In the 2001 season, when the Patriots upset the St. Louis Rams while their offense was directed by Kurt Warner, a unit dubbed the Greatest Show on Turf, they were double-digit underdogs. The Rams had won the Super Bowl two seasons earlier and you couldn’t find a guy in any bar across the county who gave the upstart Patriots a chance to win that game. Most were willing to lay the 14-point line and back the Rams.

The Patriots first taste of greatness that season was built on one of the most controversial calls ever, the Brady fumble and Oakland Raiders recovery that was ruled … who knows, whatever it gave the ball back to the Patriots. That gave Brady his first second chance in the playoffs, and he parlayed that into a game tying field goal and overtime win. The next week the Patriots were ten-point underdogs in Pittsburgh, and Steelers Head Coach Bill Cowher did perhaps the stupidest thing a head coach ever did.

“I don’t want you guys distracted with ticket requests and family members while we are preparing for the Super Bowl. So take care of all those things now,” Cowher instructed his team before they played the AFC Championship Game. The assumption that they were going to win put the Steelers in a horrible motivational spot against the underdog Patriots. The Steelers didn’t have to worry about distractions before the Super Bowl other than explaining how they lost to the upstart Patriots.

Then Brady and his Patriots went into the Super Bowl even bigger underdogs, and the Rams were as confident as the Steelers of a win even if head coach Mike Martz didn’t make quite as obvious of a mistake as Cowher.

This week, the fan in the Brady jersey was comparing this year’s New England team with the second season Brady played in the league.

Not close.

This New England team is a viable winner of the Super Bowl based on a number of statistical factors that point to Mike Vrabel’s team winning it all in his first season as head coach. But, other than Brady, how have second-year NFL quarterbacks done in the Super Bowl?

First things first. No rookie quarterback has ever led his team to the Super Bowl. Seven second-year signal callers have before Maye did it this season.

The first was Dan Marino, who led the Miami Dolphins into Super Bowl XIX against the San Francisco 49ers. Marino and the Dolphins got crushed in that game by Joe Montana and company, 38-16.

In the 1999 season, Kurt Warner was in his second NFL season; he had also played in the Arena Football League before joining the Rams. He led Los Angeles to a narrow win over the Tennessee Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV. Ben Roethlisberger was in his second season with the Pittsburgh Steelers when he guided his team to a win over the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XL.

Colin Kaepernick was in his second year with the 49ers when he took his team to the Super Bowl to complete the 2012 season. San Francisco lost to the Baltimore Ravens. Russell Wilson was in his second season with the Seattle Seahawks when he led his team to a romp win over Peyton Manning and his Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII, 43-8. Four years ago, Joe Burrow was in his second season with the Cincinnati Bengals when they lost to the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI while winning the point spread decision. The Bengals were 4½ point underdogs and were defeated in the game by a field goal, 23-20.

Add those up and we find that before Maye there have been seven second-year quarterbacks who guided their teams to the Super Bowl. Their record in Roman numeral games is 4-3 straight-up and 5-2 versus the point spread.

So, despite a New England quarterback in his second professional campaign leading his team to a Super Bowl, this year’s game and the one played 24 years ago are not parallels.

Maye has a better chance of winning than Brady did.