NFL 2021 Season - Week 12
 

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NFL STRATEGIES

Either Way
by Dennis Ranahan

I’m just not into selling myself. Particularly in this business.

When I abandoned a career in the National Football League to open Qoxhi Picks, people thought I was nuts. Gambling was an evil. The 1919 Chicago Black Sox. Gamblers in movies were commonly linked to the mob. Anyone using my service for gain in 1977 had to break the law unless they were wagering legally in Nevada.

Some were.

Most weren’t.

I was competing against companies led by deep pockets claiming 80, 85 and 90 percent winners. The industry was heavily invested in new clients, knowing their advertising campaigns had nothing to do with what an actual client could expect.

Thing is, ripped off users paid tens of thousands of dollars for advice that was no more assuring them of a point spread win than betting randomly. One year, a sports writer took on a proposed 80% handicapper, and beat him. The sports writer got 53% right against the point spread, the handicapper 48%.

After the contest was done, the writer revealed all his picks were totally random; heads for the home team and tails for the visiting team.

One Nevada radio broadcaster offered a $1000 bet for any handicapper that could win 75% of their NFL point spread plays.

First, no one came forward, and second, if I can hit 75% of 50 some picks, I’m going to make a lot more than $1000. And big gains can be made even if I miss 75% but win something more than 57%. Break even moneywise if all wagers were the same amount is just a shade under 53%.

Today, the industry has evolved to where in some advertising you actually have companies boasting winning percentages around 60%. Reality has softened the stretch for the highest winning percentages, but the market is still geared to customers lured to the game for a lifestyle that includes exotic sports cars, swimming pools and women.

For those that already have achieved those goals, the attraction is the adrenaline of winning or losing on Sunday afternoon.

More than once, early in my career and stretching for decades, I had been advised that the only way to make money selling football picks was to inflate your results. Tell them a story, sell the sizzle, it is basic economics.

It was not difficult for me to resist such notions.

By my way of thinking, telling the truth is basic to any foundation that is going to lead to long term gains for all involved. In 1984, I recruited a salesman who had been working for the Jim Feist conglomerate of handicapping services in Las Vegas. During our initial interview, the subject of best seasons came up. He interpreted that as strictly a sales function while I only viewed it from a point spread results perspective.

The Feist disciple knew what was required to make money in the current handicapping industry, and it had nothing to do with the actual picks or how clients were utilizing that information for bottom line profits.

The typical handicapping model is to sell to people who like to gamble, while I was looking for individuals who were interested in investing.

Turns out there is good to be found from both camps.

Gambling is fun, a romp in the park as opposed to a day in the office.

Investing in the point spread market requires consistent practices more aligned with a time in the office mentality.

For pure investors, wagers need to be made as dictated by one of the six money management strategies available online. No tool in sports handicapping is more important to generating bottom line profits than the Account Manager found on this site.

If you want to use the Qoxhi insights to make wagers along with all your best hunches and interest in primetime games and can afford it, I welcome you.

For those that are willing to commit to the rigors actually required to manage a season of National Football League games utilizing strategies proven to generate bottom line profits, welcome aboard.