There is a reason our work at Qoxhi Picks consistently gets off to a positive start in September. Most bettors are still wagering on how teams did last year, while people in the know are also focused on the shifts in team strengths based both on talent and year-to-year trends.

This is the first place where well-informed bettors can take advantage of lines the books are forced to carry more in response to public opinion than actual collateral evidence. There are often games where if the books were just handicapping them on what they know the line would be dramatically different than the number posted.

While seldom realized, the goal of a book is to balance the wagering between the favorite and underdog. A 50/50 split on the game offers books the advantage of collecting the cost of the bet, vig, without risking any losses.

No handicapping organization, sports service or football coach has more information that influences the results of games than the bookmakers. That is why they can offer a point spread and allow clients to wager on either side and consistently beat the bettors. Their lines are not only designed to balance the wagering but also to shift the advantageous side of the betting proposition to favor the side less likely for the public to lean.

Oh yeah, they are smart rats.

But, as previously stated, we take great pride in getting off to quick starts in NFL campaigns by taking advantage of knowing what the books are offering and why the advantage is most often on the other side of what the public is corralled into taking.

In the real world, the success of our early season work is demonstrated in the results over the first four weeks of an NFL campaign. Over the past five seasons our Top Picks are 16-3-1 in September.

We get the 2024 campaign off and running next week with a season that starts with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens on September 5.