Why would anyone spend $3,900 for the same picks they can have for $1,950?
For maximum profits, successful point spread selections need to be coupled with a bright business plan. This includes three areas to calculate; The line, the vig and when to make the wager. If one waits till game day to make wagers they are subservient to the current point spreads. Statistically, 7% of National Football League games have the point spread winner shifted based on the opening and closing lines.
It is easy math to look back and locate games that the opening line would have paid one side, and the closing number the other. There is more of an art involved to call for a buy at a certain line while anticipating whether the closing number would hurt or enhance that wager. Last year, Qoxhi released 80 picks over the course of the regular season and offered an early buy at a point spread available early in the week 39 times.
Almost half of the Qoxhi selections went into a game day with a point spread no longer available, and of those 39 recommendations 36 would have offered a less attractive line on game day. In the three where a better line was available on Sunday than the one we purchased earlier in the week, the line didn’t make a difference. In the 36 that did have a better line, two made a difference.
The thing about a better line is that I don’t have to tell you whether the better line won or lost, because if the better line comes into play, it always wins.
A true rarity in sports gambling.
The better line can only help, as it did last season when we were laying 2½ points with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Los Angeles Rams in a November matchup. The Buccaneers made a furious comeback behind Tom Brady who took his team the length of the field on a touchdown drive while using 35 of the 44 seconds left on the clock without the benefit of a timeout. When it was over, the Buccaneers had a three point win, 16-13. That final score resulted in a push for those that got the game day line, and a win for those armed with the early information.
From a bottom line perspective, winning with the early line added a 4% profit margin to the season ending account balance.
The other game the point spread affected was the last week of the regular season matchup between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers were locked into their playoff position and the home standing Broncos were looking for some redemption on a season that started with high hopes after the acquisition of Russell Wilson and ended in the doom of another fired head coach. Denver opened as a three point underdog, a line that was jumped on by the wise guys from all corners of the betting world.
By Wednesday, the line was the Broncos by two points, and it would rise to three points on Friday. The knowledge on this game was obvious, and I should have been quicker to the draw. The opening line was a winner, when I recommended a buy the point spread was already Denver by 3 points. The Broncos won by three points, 31-28, after appearing to be on their way to a point spread cover of even the bloated closing line of six points with a 31-20 lead. Then, a late game fumble on a punt set the Chargers up for a fourth quarter touchdown which was followed by a two-point conversion and a point spread win.
The Broncos were the Qoxhi top pick that week, so their value in money terms was enhanced by the early line purchase on every money management strategy. It also allowed Top Pick Exclusive subscribers to earn a 5% profit based on the point spread push and straight-up win.
So why should one pay double for the early releases?
It comes down to risk versus return. Only once in more than 20 years did an early release actually negatively affect the point spread result. On September 21, 2014, the Cleveland Browns hosted the Baltimore Ravens. Early in the week we saw Baltimore as our side, and called for a buy to avoid an anticipated move on the line from the Ravens favored by 5½ points to 6. But, on game day, the wise guys all came in on Cleveland and the spread dropped to Baltimore by 4½ points. The game ended in the middle, with Baltimore winning by five points, 25-20.
That is the one exception to the rule that seizing the early lines offered by Qoxhi benefits clients. Last season, the 39 early releases resulted in the point spread shifts twice making a difference, and those results made a 9.9% difference in the bottom line. A 9.9% profit in almost any business investment would be considered a successful year, let alone an 18 week investment return. And it was simply the difference of additional profits from a Basic strategy account that generated 58% profits in the same time frame.
What does a 9.9% profit mean to you?
If one established their Account Manager with a $10,000 opening account balance, it means $990 while utilizing the Basic strategy. Hardly worth the additional investment of nearly $2,000. But, if the person was in a position to responsibly open an account with the recommended 10% of their annual fee; $35,000 is a reasonable opening account balance to justify the extra expense.
In 2022, the early releases generated an additional $3,465 for Basic strategy clients with an opening account balance of $35,000. That profit margin would certainly be worth the additional $1,750.