While weather in Buffalo was so extreme last weekend it prompted the Bills opening playoff game to be moved from Sunday to Monday, tonight Buffalo will have weather much like the conditions they enjoyed last Monday, cold, low 20’s, but with light winds and no precipitation. Good conditions for both the Bills and Kansas City Chiefs to show their best to decide which team goes on to meet the Baltimore Ravens next week for the American Football Conference Championship.
Some stats and records are amazing to even imagine, on the top of the list is Joe Dimaggio’s 56 game hitting streak. But in football, these two teams also have a couple records that are tough to comprehend. One is in favor of the Chiefs, another a negative on the Bills.
Here is the one for the Chiefs; Patrick Mahomes has a winning record in games that his team has trailed in by ten points. Here is the surprising negative stat for Buffalo and their quarterback, Josh Allen has never won an overtime game in six previous tries.
One of those losses was two years ago in the playoffs when the Chiefs got a tie in regulation by scoring a field goal after the Bills had taken a three point lead with 13 seconds left on the game clock. That was perhaps one of the most disappointing games of Allen’s bright career. In that 2021 postseason encounter, the last time Allen was on the field in that game he led what appeared to be a winning touchdown drive.
Only to have Mahomes work his magic to tie the game, then have the Chiefs win the coin toss, and Allen never get another chance as the super talented Chiefs quarterback took his team to a game winning touchdown. That 42-36 win for the Chiefs was the second postseason victory for Mahomes and company in this fierce rivalry. Kansas City also ended the Bills 2020 season with a 38-20 triumph at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship Game.
While the Bills have lost both their postseason contests with Allen leading their charge against Mahomes, they have fared better in the regular season. Since that stinging loss in overtime two years ago, the Bills have downed the Chiefs twice in regular season play with a victory last year, 24-20, and a win earlier this season, 20-17. All those games were played in Kansas City, in fact Mahomes has played in 12 AFC postseason games and all dozen were in his friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium
Mahomes is 10 and 2 in those games with a point spread record of 8 and 4. He has never played an AFC postseason game in front of an opposition's home crowd … until today.
This has not been the Chiefs best season. They opened defense of their Super Bowl LVII title with a home loss to the Detroit Lions. Their offense has been hampered by a receiving corps that has more drops than any team in the league. If one’s strength is their quarterback, having a weak receiving corps dulls his effectiveness.
As for the Bills, they hit a rough patch midseason and as recently as six weeks ago had only a 5% chance of winning their AFC East Division. But, since a loss to the Eagles in November a week before their bye, the Bills have been unbeatable.
They did overcome a 95% chance against them winning the AFC East with a season closing road win over their primary division competition, the Miami Dolphins. And they opened the postseason last week with a convincing win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, their sixth consecutive victory.
It may not have been smooth sailing throughout the regular season for the Bills this year, but they have shown their resilience for two months and now have an opportunity to beat the one team they most want to triumph over, the Kansas City Chiefs. They get to do it in front of their home fans while Mahomes has his first experience of a postseason contest in front of a hostile crowd.
Yes, the Bills beat the Chiefs last year and this season in Kansas City, but those were regular season games. What Allen and company are really looking for is a win over Mahomes and company in the playoffs.
And today, they get that done.
Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (-2½) over Kansas City Chiefs