I keep an eye out for the next Jim Plunkett.
In 1970, Plunkett led Stanford University to their first Rose Bowl appearance in 18 years and to a victory over the heavily favored Ohio State Buckeyes in the most watched Bowl game. He won the Heisman Trophy over two more future National Football league stars, Joe Theismann and Archie Manning, and was the first player chosen in the 1971 National Football League draft by the New England Patriots. That year, he was named American Football Conference Rookie of the Year. In all, he spent five seasons with the Patriots and after a shoulder injury sidelined him and allowed Steve Grogan to land the starting job for New England, he was traded to the San Francisco 49ers before the 1976 draft for three first round picks and one second round choice.
In San Francisco, he started well, winning six of his first seven games, but then injuries and ineffectiveness had the 49ers success tail off that season. One more disappointing campaign in San Francisco led to his release in 1978. He was then signed to backup the starter in Oakland and spent two years on the bench before an injury suffered by Dan Pastorini handed him the starting role with the Raiders.
That opportunity led to Plunkett’s best six professional campaigns and two Super Bowl wins for the Silver and Black.
The success Plunkett achieved once in Al Davis’ organization has left me searching for the next quarterback that came out of college with a book full of accolades and failed to live up to his full potential in his first or even second stop in the NFL. The quarterback in current times that I have had my eyes on is Sam Darnold, he appeared to be a sure winner and future NFL star while at USC and was the New York Jets first pick, third overall, in the 2018 draft.
While Darnold has not achieved success yet as a professional, either with the Jets or his second team, the Carolina Panthers, and is now Brock Purdy’s backup in San Francisco, the first player chosen in that 2018 draft may be on the cusp of Plunkett magic.
Baker Mayfield joined the long-suffering Cleveland Browns as the first overall selection in the same year New York chose Darnold. And, like Darnold, he had an inauspicious start. With much fanfare and advertising opportunities Mayfield performed on the field like so many other signal callers that come to town with press clippings and slink out of the city after being traded for future considerations.
After Mayfield’s Browns tenure ended with a thud, he was shipped to the Carolina Panthers for a conditional 5th round draft choice and after winning only one of six starts for the Panthers was granted his unconditional release on December 6, 2022. The move was done because Mayfield thought there was a chance the San Francisco 49ers would sign him as a free agent in the wake of them losing their starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, to a season ending injury.
The Los Angeles Rams, who compete against the 49ers in the NFC West, ended the possibility of Mayfield joining the Niners by claiming him off waivers and sitting him on their bench for pretty much the rest of the 2022 campaign. That left the 49ers to be guided by the last player they chose in the 2022 draft, and that worked out pretty well for Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy.
This season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were stuck with no usable quarterback and a roster that ate up cap space like Pac-Man wipes out tokens for an inexperienced video game player. The Rams didn’t stand in the way of Mayfield signing with the Buccaneers for a bargain basement salary on a contract laced with incentives.
Well, Mayfield has cashed all the incentives available so far this season. He got a huge bonus first for starting all their games and second for leading the Buccaneers to the NFC South Division title. He picked up another quarter-million dollars for beating the Philadelphia Eagles last week and stands to gain another big pay day if he leads the Bucs to the NFC Championship Game this week with a victory over the Detroit Lions.
If the Bucs win the Super Bowl, and you need a loan, Baker Mayfield is your man.
So, does Mayfield fit the Plunkett script?
He was a first overall pick and both traded and released before landing with a team he guided to the playoffs.
It’s a heck of a story, but one that my numbers say ends this week in Detroit when the Buccaneers meet another quarterback who was a first overall draft selection and is playing with his second team, Jared Goff. Last week, the Lions won their first postseason game in 32 years and they did it over the quarterback that Goff was traded for, Matthew Stafford. Only the Rams had matched the proficiency of the 49ers and Baltimore Ravens over the second half of the 2023 regular season and yet the Lions beat them.
They were a tough challenge for a Detroit team that hadn’t won a postseason game since 1991. But, Goff and his Lions did down the Rams, although they lost on the point spread. As a three point favorite, Detroit squeaked out a one point win, 24-23.
After losing against the line last week, this Sunday they are favored by even more points … Detroit is a 6½ point pick over Mayfield and his Buccaneers.
Know why?
Because they are going to win by more.
Qoxhi Picks: Detroit Lions (-6½) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers