You know the old axiom that if you don’t know who the sucker is at the poker table it is probably you.
I apply that rule to handicapping the National Football League. If I see a point spread that has an opening line or move that I don’t understand, I search for reasons that prompted the move from people who may know more than me. I respect knowledge in this game, and consider the people setting the point spreads and moving them the most informed individuals in the game.
When I first established Qoxhi Picks in the 1980’s, I sought out successful handicappers to find what methods they may be employing to reach their point spread decisions. I recall talking to one such individual on the east coast, and he told me something I never forgot. “I know where the warped boards are at the Boston Garden and how that plays into the game and ultimately the point spread.
Wow, I thought. This guy must know everything.
Then, on the plane ride home, I rethought his assertion and began to question the validity of it. How did this really help him pick a basketball game and was the claim more geared to entice people to buy his information. It was a hell of a claim, but how did it really contribute to a winning pick?
I put it in the same category as something else that was taking hold at the time in the handicapping world, services that claimed they had an edge because they monitored players' biorhythms that allowed them to deliver winners.
And how exactly does that work, I queried one person claiming this edge? “Is it the quarterback on an up that you rely on, how bout if a defensive lineman has a biorhythm that says he will have a special day?”
He looked at me a bit put-off by the question, and replied, “We put it all together to come up with our plays.”
Beware of people that answer the tough questions with the idea that they “put it all together.”
Same thing with the warped boards at the Boston Garden. Is he suggesting that is why Larry Bird and company can use that to their advantage against a visitor? And, if that is the case, isn’t that already factored into the point spread? But, more likely, what he was insinuating with his claim is that he knows more than me and I should buy his information?
No, I’m not interested in relying on something I don’t know or can’t verify. If an NFL point spread doesn’t match up with what logically could be expected, then why is it so? I can guarantee one thing in this business, the books don’t post or move lines without solid reasons.
So, when I saw the opening line on tonight’s game, the Jaguars a slight favorite against the Saints in New Orleans, I accepted that as a proper number. What caught me off guard was that in the blink of an eye, before most establishments had even posted a number, the line on this game shifted from the Jaguars favored by 1½ points to the Saints becoming a three point home favorite.
What?
Who’s hurt?
Turns out, it is Trevor Lawrence who was injured during the Jaguars win last Sunday over the Indianapolis Colts. An injury not advertised as much as when Aaaron Rodgers or Anthony Richardson were hurt, but one that could have just as much of a dramatic impact on the quarterback’s team.
This season, the Jaguars came into the year on the heels of earning a postseason berth and victory in a Wild Card playoff game. Their success followed back-to-back seasons in which they compiled the worst record in football. On my charts, a team that jumps up in the win column from a cellar dweller to the playoffs is prone to a letdown the following season.
Consider it a misalignment of talent and expectations. When a team enjoys a successful season following years of last place finishes, like the Jaguars did last year, expectations often exceed actual talent levels. Their success was gained with low expectations, while building on that success when expectations rise is a common spot for a team to experience a down year.
Now, the Jaguars had a reason for a second straight worst record in football, they were mismanaged as bad as any team in recent history. Urban Meyer had a successful college career coaching football, but at the pro level he joined the likes of Nick Saban and Bobby Petrino who failed when looking to emulate college success at the pro level.
Meyer’s less than full season stint with the Jaguars pissed away Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season. But they perhaps should erect a statue of Meyer in front of TIAA Bank Field for providing Jacksonville a second straight top pick in the draft which allowed the once struggling franchise to add exceptional talent to their roster.
Then, enter Doug Pederson, who had led the Philadelphia Eagles to their only Super Bowl win to complete the 2017 season and guided the Jaguars from the bottom to the playoffs in his first year as their head coach. The Jaguars expected dip this season didn’t happen early with a sweep of their three preseason games and a road win over the Indianapolis Colts in their season opener.
After that initial victory, the Jaguars did lose their next two games, an indicator that this may be a down year following their 2022 success. But, after losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans, Pederson’s men rebounded with wins over the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills, a pair of games played in London.
Tonight, they see if they can pick up a victory in the United States when they meet the Saints at the Superdome. Whether Lawrence will be at full strength is not for sure. He may not play, and if he does, his injured knee won’t allow him to be 100%.
So, no surprises, that is why the line shifted from the Jaguars favored to an underdog tonight. But, the books, who would know best, aren’t sure if Lawrence’s knee injury will allow him to play as evidenced by the point spread moving around like the Richter Scale during a small shaker in California.
I don’t wager on uncertainty.