Weather will not be a factor that interrupts play in the National Football League today. At the ten outdoor venues on today’s schedule, only the game in Cleveland between the Browns and Detroit Lions, has any threat of rain. The rest of the outdoor Week 11 sites are under clear or cloudy conditions.
In 2020, the National Football League had their first season ever where visiting teams won more games straight-up over home teams during the course of the regular season. That oddity could easily be explained away with the fact that most stadiums didn’t allow fans in the stands while we were in the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Seems to offer clear evidence that hometown fans do make a difference in the outcome of the games for their teams.
What that doesn’t explain is why in 2021, through ten weeks and the Thursday night game, the visitors again have an edge over home teams in straight-up results, 76-74-1. Those results also result in a huge bulge for the away teams against the point spread, 56-35. One way to look at this is to think that home field advantage has an ever decreasing influence on game results, while I like to view it differently. I’m a believer that numbers gravitate to where they are logically plotted to go and when there is an unexplained imbalance, one can expect those numbers to correct in the weeks to come.
What does this mean?
Home teams may win at a higher percentage over the next eight weeks than if they already had their typical six to eight percent edge over visitors.
We are into the time of year in the NFL that division races and travel schedules take on an added meaning for the games. Teams looking to save their seasons while playing a first place team in their division have a natural motivational edge, and travel schedules and upcoming games can influence how a team does this week.
A perfect example of that is evident in one of our plays today, the Houston Texans over the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee is riding a six game winning streak into today’s action and after this week’s home game against the lowly Texans meet the New England Patriots in Foxboro next Sunday.
Tennessee has a bulge in their division lead over the rest of the AFC South Division, they are the only team in that group of four teams with a winning record. The Titans are understandably as confident as the bettors, who are showing a 20-1 edge in taking the Titans on Nevada parlay cards while laying 10½ points on the spread.
There is simply no motivational sprocket to spur the Titans effort today, a fact that often results in a superior team surviving the game with a straight-up victory, but seldom enough of an edge on the scoreboard to cover a double-digit line.
As for the public, their three favorite plays today start with that game, the Tennessee Titans (-10) over the Houston Texans. The next two most bet games by the public are the San Francisco 49ers (-6½) over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens (-5) over the Chicago Bears.
As for the Qoxhi Picks selections, those choices are now posted on this site and if a Bullet Play develops in the final hour before today’s first kickoff, that game will be added to the list of recommendations by 9:45 a.m. Pacific Time.