The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens close out Sunday National Football League action tonight with a meeting at M&T Bank Stadium. Both these teams have legitimate Super Bowl hopes, the Chiefs are favored to advance to their third straight title game.
This morning, I was talking to a fellow handicapper and his comment to me was, “I just hate to pull the trigger against Patrick Mahomes.”
I can understand that from a public perception point of view. Mahomes, with all due respect to Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, is the best quarterback in the league today. But, being the best doesn’t always bring home the bacon.
No team in the NFL has a worse regular season point spread record over the past ten games than Mahomes and the Chiefs. Kansas City has not covered a regular season point spread since November 1, 2020. On that day, they dominated the New York Jets by a 35-9 score. Since then, the Chiefs have only lost two games, against the Los Angeles Chargers in a meaningless final day of the regular season matchup and Super Bowl LV against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
But all those Kansas City straight-up wins have added up to an 0-8-1 point spread mark.
Because “no one” wants to pull the trigger against Mahomes.
Tonight, on the road, the Chiefs and Mahomes are favored following an opening win and point spread loss to the Cleveland Browns last Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. The Ravens are looking for their first win of the season after suffering an overtime loss last Monday night in Las Vegas to the Raiders.
What does that give us situationally in this game?
A road favorite who hasn’t covered a regular season point spread in ten months coming off a win and another point spread loss against a team needing a win to pull even with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North Division. Pittsburgh was upset at home by the Raiders earlier today after they got an upset win last Sunday on the road against the talented Buffalo Bills.
Once you get over the resistance of betting against Mahomes wins come pretty easy against the spread. Tonight, my numbers say the spread is a cushion and a straight-up Ravens victory a probability.
So what am I recommending?
Pull the trigger.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (+3½) over Kansas City Chiefs