All 11 National Football League teams that played in their home stadium yesterday both won their game and covered the point spread. This kind of dominance usually would prompt the public to jump on home teams and back the New York Giants tonight at MetLife Stadium.
The public ain’t buying the home teams always win theory, and are riding with the Cowboys tonight while anticipating an easy road triumph over their NFC East Division rivals. All week, the Cowboys have got a majority of the public action for this Monday nighter, but after yesterday’s results, which according to the books didn’t go well for the public, their backing of Dallas tonight has jumped. Statistically speaking, they were getting 58% of the wagers from the time tonight’s game was posted last Sunday before yesterday’s action. But, in the last 24 hours, bets on the Cowboys are running at nearly 80%, driving the overall public edge to Dallas up to 68%.
Yesterday, the public lost their biggest plays on Green Bay and New England, and to get it back, they are loading up on the Cowboys tonight.
With all this action on Dallas, the line must be spiking above the opening 7 point spread.
The line right now on tonight’s game has the home standing Giants getting 6½ points, which points to a clear split between what the public likes and where the wise guys are putting their money. It takes a lot of exposure on the other side for the books to make up for public action running at nearly 70%.
If the books feared the Cowboys were going to win, they would give the Giants more than the opening line. If, instead, the books fear getting stuck with a Giants win, they would reduce the spread in order to capture a maximum number of public bets backing the Cowboys.
Which, by the way, is exactly what is happening.
I don’t like the Giants tonight. They may have already had the most up part of their season with a rookie quarterback and suspect defense under the direction of a head coach that may be near the front of the line for upcoming firings. Head Coach Pat Shurmur is in his second season, and while he may be given some slack when taking into consideration that he has had to manage the end of Eli Manning’s years in New York, and groom a rookie signal caller on the fly, patience on a losing coach is not a common virtue in the NFL. In his first season-and-a-half, Shurmur has led the Giants to a 4-17 won/loss record.
While the New York brass has to deal with these issues, we don’t have too.
The Cowboys recent three game losing streak on the heels of winning their first three games against suspect competition, and their loss on this same field just three weeks ago when as a favorite over the Jets they were downed, 24-22, does not put tonight’s road favorite in as soft of a position as I like before making a wager on a home underdog.
The Cowboys don’t have to be flat tonight, and if talent and organization rules the evening, Dallas is capable of both winning this game and covering the spread.
Yesterday, the wise guys loaded up on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and drove a point spread down two points while the public was betting the home-standing and favored Seattle Seahawks. The public won when the Seahawks scored a touchdown in overtime. The Bucs were the right side of the wagering proposition before that game started, but they didn’t have the experience on how to win the game.
We have that same kind of matchup tonight, and while the 6½ points is inviting with a team with so many motivational factors in their favor, the Cowboys have too much potential for a blowout win on National television to recommend a wager.