The New England Patriots visit the Baltimore Ravens tonight in primetime Sunday NBC telecast. This is an easy game to have a decision based on a number of known factors involving these two longtime rivals. The Ravens have given the Patriots more problems during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era than nearly any other team.
Being as good as any team against the Patriots is not exactly defined by having a winning record, in fact Brady and New England have won 8 of 11 games played between these two opponents. Still, in those same 11 games, the point spread record of the Ravens and Patriots is tied at 5-5-1. In the playoffs, the Ravens even have an edge, splitting the four games straight-up and beating the point spread three times.
People can have a strong opinion about taking New England tonight, particularly when the point spread is lower than the opening line. A clear indicator of big money backing the Ravens is that despite 70% of all wagers on this game taking the Patriots, the line has dropped from New England by 4½ points, to the Patriots favored by a field goal.
Big bucks don’t always win.
When this game is over, the people who picked it right will have very good reasons for being on the winning side. But, before this game starts, there are two sides to consider and each offers a plausible case for success.
Despite what appears to be a sweet spot on the schedule for Baltimore, they may be meeting the best team Brady has ever played on. The Patriots clearly have the best defense in football, only the 49ers would have a viable case to question that, and Brady is running New England’s offense.
Brady with the best defense in football.
That simply sounds unbeatable, and so far this season has been.
The wise guys think they’ve found the spot to tarnish the Patriots 2019 won/loss record, while I counter with the argument that taking the best defense in football in a primetime game is not a bad idea.
While all these sides can be debated, I know this, I’m not inclined to wager against the wise guy money nor pulled to bet against the best team in football.
There are a lot of factors to reason with in finding who is going to win this game, but that journey for me leads to not risking money on either side.