Our first premise is that the books know more than us.
When they make a move, they are doing it for a reason. My job is to interpret what I know, in relation to what they have gathered from their vast network of resources. Our advantage occurs when the books have to waylay what they know in favor of public opinion. They have the beacon of trying to get an equal amount on each side of the wagering proposition, but more often than not they are out on one side.
Thing is, with this set of circumstances the books are able to multiply their gains well beyond the pure percentages the vig would statistically dictate. The public finds ways to lose beyond what their won/loss record would generate because they are gambling. By definition, gambling is taking a chance and compartmentalized into an activity of leisure. Decisions that affect the bottom line are made from the end of a bar with a hope to get even.
It can be argued that the books always or never gamble.
Suffice it to say, the men and women that work to set lines on everything from a hot dog eating contest to the color of dress the queen is going to wear at the wedding, are good at what they do. I think we should all have respect for a group that can convince the majority of bettors to back the worst team in football with their money tonight.
That’s right, the Miami Dolphins, a team that is to the National Football League what the Washington Generals are to the Harlem Globetrotters, are bet on tonight by more than 60% of all wagers, even the wise guys are on the Dolphins plus the points.
A team as bad as the Dolphins and an organization that continues to unload players in hopes of snatching top talent in upcoming drafts, meets a Steelers team tonight that is still in the hunt in their division. Despite losing their first three games, and quarterback Ben Roethlisbeger in the process, Pittsburgh still holds out hope they can get into the playoff hunt.
The two Miami recent point spread covers came in a home loss to perhaps next worst NFL team, the Washington Redskins, and in a double-digit road defeat last week to the Buffalo Bills. Tonight, they meet Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh and the public and wise guys are all taking the points … while I think they are missing the point.
The books are on the Steelers tonight and think the two touchdown spread is a bargain.
Qoxhi Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers (-14) over Miami Dolphins