The Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs tonight to kick off Week Seven of the 2019 National Football League regular season. These two longtime AFC West rivals have had their fortunes reversed over the past two weekends.
The Broncos had lost their first four games before downing the Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans in recent games. The Chiefs opened with a lopsided road win in Jacksonville over the Jaguars, the first of four consecutive victories, before back-to-back losses at Arrowhead Stadium to the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans.
In other words, the Chiefs and Broncos haven’t had the same win/loss result on any day this season, and they obviously won’t tonight, after they battle in the Mile High city.
The wise guys seem to think they know who is going to win tonight, they have backed the home underdog Broncos from the opening of the line with Kansas City favored by five points. Despite the public backing Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City teammates by more than 75%, the line has dropped two points to where the Broncos are now only getting three points on the spread.
Even if the wise guys were right about this game, much of the wager they piled on early is already compromised by the two point drop. If the Broncos plus 5 points was a good wager, is Denver with 3 points still a high percentage play?
Getting five points instead of three points is always the side to be on, and it will make a difference based on the result 7% of the time. If the Broncos plus three doesn’t win tonight, would Denver had gotten the money while losing straight-up with five points? It doesn’t happen often, but the better line is always the winner.
In practical application, that would cut into the viability of a wager on the Broncos tonight. Still, with overwhelming evidence to support the home dog here, particularly while taking into consideration the number of nagging injuries the Chiefs are currently confronting, the Broncos would be the only side to wager. Included on the Chiefs injury list is quarterback Patrick Mahomes. While he has not been knocked out of a game, Mahomes has limped off the field in both the Chiefs recent losses.
Yet, there is another side to this game.
The road favorite Chiefs are not going to Denver overconfident, but focused while looking to avoid an unexpected three game losing streak. A point spread favorite is more likely to succeed when they have a legitimate respect for their opponent. Off back-to-back losses, while the Broncos defense pitched a shutout last week against the Titans, 16-0, the Broncos have earned the Chiefs’ respect.
My son, Kevin, developed a chart to illustrate when a team is maxed out on either end of the spectrum. That is when a team’s play has exhausted their talent pool, or underperformed for so long that they are ready to snap back with a big performance. A series of mathematical equations are utilized to reveal when a team is due to excel, and when they are at a likely spot to fail.
Our two money rated picks already identified for Sunday have teams that are in prime spots to win, like the Broncos tonight, but unlike Denver, have advantageous numbers on Kevin’s chart. Tonight, on this chart, the Broncos are facing the prospect of a poor performance, and the Chiefs poised for a big effort.
The conflicts tonight add up to no play on the Thursday night game, but with an eye on our first Premium Top Pick of the season on Sunday.