Ironically, the picks you most don’t want to give out are the best. Sides that have all the earmarks of success, but the teams involved throw a wrench into taking the side we should.
I don’t want the Cincinnati Bengals tonight. They are in Pittsburgh and facing their longtime division challenger at Heinz Field. The Steelers haven’t won a game this year, this is the fourth week of the season, do you really think the Bengals can go in there and block Pittsburgh from their first win of the season?
I can’t see it happening … but apparently that is not the most important factor in this equation. Not seeing something, and having all my indicators say it is so, offers more credence to my factors given they are rooted in motivational elements. The best time to spring this kind of trap is when the motivated team is up against a favorite that can’t see themselves losing the game, even if they have an oh and three season record.
A bad team expected to win is a bad bet.
A few years ago, the Steelers were among the best, a time when three dynamic offensive stars were playing at their peak; Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown.
None of that talented trio is on tonight’s roster, Bell and Brown off to a new team and unemployment, and Roethlisberger to the sidelines after season ending surgery on his elbow. What’s left is what head coach Mike Tomlin would like to think of a younger and faster defense and an offense still capable of moving the ball.
In fact, what he has is an offense ravaged by defections and injury and a defense that is little more than target practice for a good quarterback.
But, do you think I want the Bengals in Pittsburgh tonight?
The thought of seeing that red-headed quarterback for the Bengals, Andy Dalton, walking off the field in seemingly bewilderment on why that was a mistake, turns my stomach. Having a first year head coach on the road against a winless Steelers team just itching for a big performance, seems like something to avoid.
My apologies in advance for this one, that I am going to suggest you bet against the Steelers tonight at Heinz Field.
The numbers made me do it.
Qoxhi Picks: Cincinnati Bengals (+3½) over Pittsburgh Steelers