Rules on rules.
It is a slippery slope my friends when the rules govern the rules. Rules inherently restrict, and are designed to limit the number of bad choices. Still, life happens in apturestures of time that shouldn’t be restricted by something that is only generally correct … but not necessarily tailored to the current situation.
Correct isn’t good enough, it has to be right.
Right comes from knowing what is truly available in a situation even if it runs smack into opposition based on historical trends. A unique set of circumstances is always present in every NFL matchup, elements much more influential in locating winners than if they were simply at home, on the road, a favorite or underdog.
One general rule that has paid dividends over the years goes like this; bet on a team replacing their starting quarterback the first week out, and if he wins, against him in his next start.
The rule has sound logic, the first week the entire team is geared to play their best to compensate for the loss of the starting quarterback. If they win, that edge is replaced by a confidence that they can win with the backup, which flattens their performance.
By rule, the Saints should have a flat performance tonight.
Teddy Bridgewater was one of six quarterbacks that started in place of the man that was number one on the season opening depth chart. Four of those shifts were due to injury, including Bridgewater, who replaced an injured Drew Brees after he suffered a hand injury that will sideline him for up to two months.
The rule to back a new quarterback worked last week, with three winning their games straight up and five of six beating the point spread.
Next step, by rule, is to bet against a team where the quarterback is making his second start off a victory. Tonight, I think that rule would erase a real good point spread play.
Bridgewater is not a typical backup, he has franchise quarterback credentials when healthy, which he appears to be right now. He also plays on a Saints team that is talented on both sides of the ball and masterfully coached by Sean Payton. They also play a Cowboys team tonight who rides into town on a three game winning streak, while the Saints need a victory to avoid falling to .500.
This is not an overconfident Saints squad because they won last week, this is a determined group ready to beat a respected Dallas team. It can also be noted that while the Cowboys have opened their campaign with three wins, those victories were gained against the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins, three teams with a combined 1 win and 8 losses.
This is a big step up in class for the Cowboys, and the Saints are poised to advance their record to 3-1 while pinning Dallas with their first loss of the season.
Qoxhi Picks: New Orleans Saints (+2½) over Dallas Cowboys