Do you believe in history repeating itself?
Well, if you do, I’ve got a 45 to 1 wager just begging to be cashed.
The Indianapolis Colts carried into August 12-1 odds to win Super Bowl LIV this season, not unlike the odds on the St. Louis Rams during the preseason of 1999 to win Super Bowl XXXIV. Then, something happened to these two teams eerily similar. In the third week of the preseason in 1999, the Rams starting quarterback, Trent Green, went down with a season ending injury.
After Green was sidelined, the odds on the Rams to win Super Bowl XXXIV shot up like the temperature on a hot August day in Arizona. Last week, during the Colts third preseason game, it was learned that their star quarterback, Andrew Luck, had decided on retirement because of a number of crippling injuries. Upon that announcement, the odds on the Colts winning the Super Bowl shot up from 12/1 to 45/1.
One can understand why … just like bettors turned tail on a promising Rams season 20 years ago when their quarterback went down. That year, the Rams had to turn to Kurt Warner, an undrafted QB who had briefly been in the Green Bay Packers camp and more recently had been stocking grocery shelves and playing for the Iowa Barnstormers of the Arena Football League.
The Colts, this year, in the wake of Luck’s departure from the game, will now be directed by Jacoby Brissett. He was a third round draft choice of the New England Patriots in 2016, and is in his third year with the Colts. The betting world has spoken on the gap between Luck and Brissett, and that is reflected in the jump in Super Bowl odds … which is a near mirror of the jump the Rams experienced when they were forced to go with Warner after Green’s injury.
That year, Warner guided the Rams to a Super Bowl win over the Tennessee Titans and is now a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Still, there is another interesting link between these two NFL franchises.
On July 26, 1972, Robert Irsay, who had recently purchased the Los Angeles Rams, traded with the founding owner of the Baltimore Colts, Carroll Rosenbloom. Traded not only players, but their entire franchises. Irsay became owner of the Colts, and Rosenbloom the Rams. Before the Rams won their Super Bowl to complete the 1999 season, Rosenbloom’s widow, Georgia Frontiere, had transferred the Rams franchise to St. Louis.
The Baltimore Colts were uprooted in 1984, and have played in Indianapolis since the move.
So what do we have here? We’ve got two teams that had promising seasons upcoming that both lost their star quarterback. One, the Rams, went on to win the Super Bowl. The second, the Colts, are now looking to embark on a season with near parallel influences and not under the direction of an undrafted quarterback, but rather a third-round choice with promise.
Do you think history could repeat itself?
Could the Colts match the magic of the 1999 Rams?
At 45 to 1 odds, the chance is worth a bite, while the odds for their opening week game against the Los Angeles Chargers offers even more promise.
Before Luck retired, the line on this game was set at a field goal, now, the Colts are getting six points or more. What we have here is a quality football team in dire need to play their best to compensate for the loss of their projected starting quarterback … with extra points on the spread.
The Colts may not win the Super Bowl, but getting off with a point spread win in Los Angeles is a real good bet.
Qoxhi Picks: Indianapolis Colts (+6) over Los Angeles Chargers