NFL 2021 Season - Week 3
 

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NFL STRATEGIES

Show, Place, Win
by Dennis Ranahan

It took me nearly 40 years of professional handicapping before I landed on a wagering method that compliments both my strategy for picking winners and quest to maximize profits. Not only that, but I didn’t uncover this gold mine during a football campaign, but rather during a basketball season.

Long before I became a professional handicapper in 1981, and even before I worked in the front office of the Oakland Raiders beginning in 1973, I had developed charts to show that motivation is the most important factor in reliably identifying point spread winners. Talent is already reflected in the posted point spreads and public opinion, but the factors that tip the spread advantages to the favorite or underdog are tied to the motivation of the teams entering the contest.

This strategy most often lands me on selections that by most accounts would be on the inferior team in the contest based on talent alone, but get the edge that is driven by the motivational factors. For 38 years, I had taken the brunt of occasional tough losses with underdogs that jumped ahead, led at halftime, but didn’t have the horses to finish the game on top.

Few things are more disappointing than making a point spread selection that jumps ahead of a more talented opponent and leads the game into the fourth quarter only to have the real talent in the battle prevail in the end and cover the line.

So, with that in mind, we introduced our Triple Play method in 2019 without much promotion. While the Account Manager on the Qoxhi site always charts NFL results based on the most common closing line on a game, we took advantage of our knowledge on the Triple Play results by posting the point spreads at the time we released our Triple Play selections.

Our first weekend was like a cold shower. Two of our three selections won on the final score, but all six first quarter and first half results lost against the spread. The 2019 opening weekend generated a 2-7 mark on our Triple Play, but what was to follow confirmed our study on this strategy.

Between the second and sixth weekends of NFL action, the Triple Play wagers were 48-20-1 against the point spread. The success of this strategy continued throughout the 2019 campaign. In the NFL Championship Games, our picks on the Titans and 49ers were 1-1, while the first quarter and first half results on those same teams generated a 4-0 mark for a Championship Game weekend result of 5-1.

Last season, other Qoxhi Money Management Strategies out-earned the Triple Play method with the Top Pick Aggressive more than doubling an opening account balance. But, in an average season the Triple Play method generated a 35% gain, and last year that rose to 39% while projections on the other strategies were dwarfed by actual results.

Now, Triple Play is available for the third time this year, and in its first two years of NFL releases has generated profit margins of 35 and 39 percent. The strategy calls for a 2% wager on each the first quarter, first half and final score of every Qoxhi Picks selection released. While the other five strategies available online only bank on the final scores, the Triple Play method is unique in one other way, it wagers the same on every selection regardless of its assigned Money Management Number.

What I find surprising, is that wagering three times on the same game may be the most conservative method for churning out consistent profits … and adds a couple additional adrenaline boosts each game.